Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday

Location: Max-Morlock-Stadion (Nuremberg)

Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
Israel	Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Nürnberg		Köln

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.75	1.42	Watch
	4.8	4.2	1.65
	6.2	4.8	1.43	Watch
	7	4.84	1.47
	6.48	4.67	1.47	Watch
	4.8	4	1.65
	6.07	4.8	1.47	Watch
	6.2	4.8	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.01 ↑ (4.04)	4.61 ↑ (4.04)	1.5 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nürnberg
15.8%

Draw
20.7%

Köln
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

22.5%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nürnberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nürnberg's form might have worsened.

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Köln's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nürnberg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Köln, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	5.9%	58.8%

Nürnberg - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Nürnberg will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Köln will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Köln: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Nürnberg (votes: 2 - 40%). Köln (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Nürnberg (2.18) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Nürnberg (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Köln (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Kukucka M. (G) 5. Drexler T. 31. Knoche R. (C) 4. Gruber F. 32. Janisch T. 20. Jander C. 21. Yilmaz B. 10. Justvan J. 18. Lubach R. 28. Antiste J. 30. Emreli M.	1. Schwabe M. (G) 25. Gazibegovic J. 4. Hubers T. (C) 3. Heintz D. 17. Paqarada L. 6. Martel E. 8. Huseinbasic D. 29. Thielmann J. 9. Waldschmidt L. 11. Kainz F. 19. Lemperle T.
Substitutes
46. Chiumento L. 6. Flick F. 14. Goller B. 42. Kusanovic T. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 38. Osawe W. 41. Porstner E. 22. Valentini E. 2. Villadsen O.	42. Downs D. 37. Maina L. 47. Olesen M. 24. Pauli J. 20. Pentke P. (G) 27. Rondic I. 2. Schmied J. 49. Telle N. 13. Uth M.
Coaches
Klose M.	Funkel F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Gruber F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Emreli M. ↓, Kusanovic T. ↑,
46', 1 - 0, Antiste J. ⚽, Janisch T. (A),
62', Drexler T. 🟨,
62', Gazibegovic J. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
66', Lubach R. 🟨,
67', 1 - 1, Kainz F. ⚽, Lemperle T. (A),
75', Heintz D. ↓, Schmied J. ↑,
76', Yilmaz B. ↓, Villadsen O. ↑,
85', Janisch T. ↓, Valentini E. ↑,
87', Huseinbasic D. 🟨,
90', 1 - 2, Kainz F. ⚽, Lemperle T. (A),
90+3', Valentini E. 🟨,
90+4', Knoche R. ↓, Porstner E. ↑,
90+4', Lubach R. ↓, Chiumento L. ↑,
90+6', Waldschmidt L. ↓, Uth M. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

Recent form of Nürnberg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Köln has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Köln is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Nürnberg: Castrop J. (Knee Injury) Danilo Soares (Yellow Cards) Tzimas S. (Illness)

There will not play in Köln: Gazibegovic J. (Ankle Injury) Kilian L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nürnberg won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Nürnberg won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
04.05.25	Nürnberg - Elversberg	1:3 ✺
26.04.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Nürnberg	3:3 ✺
19.04.25	Nürnberg - Paderborn	2:3 ✺
12.04.25	Kaiserslautern - Nürnberg	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Nürnberg - Hamburger SV	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LTLWL
- 1. FC Köln
German 2 Bundesliga
03.05.25	Köln - Jahn Regensburg	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Hannover - Köln	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Köln - Preußen Münster	3:1 ✺
11.04.25	Greuther Fürth - Köln	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Köln - Hertha Berlin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
15.12.24	Köln - Nürnberg	3:1
German Bundesliga
18.02.12	Nürnberg - Köln	2:1

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