Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 26

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Max-Morlock-Stadion (Nuremberg)

Referee: Willenborg F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Croatia	SportKlub
Cyprus	Nova Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport Top event
Greece	Nova Sports
Hungary	Arena 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay


	Nürnberg		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.75	Watch
	4.4	3.8	1.75
	4.75	3.75	1.68	Watch
	4.63	3.83	1.8
	4.64	3.84	1.81
	4.2	3.8	1.73
	4.33	3.9	1.77	Watch
	4.6	3.75	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.54 ↓ (4.88)	3.78 ↓ (4.01)	1.76 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nürnberg
20.9%

Draw
25.1%

St. Pauli
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.4%

23.6%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

25.4%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that St. Pauli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	15%	70%

Nürnberg - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Nürnberg will win (votes: 3 - 15%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 14 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Klaus C. (G) 22. Valentini E. (C) 44. Jeltsch F. 38. Horn J. 27. Brown N. 14. Goller B. 17. Castrop J. 6. Flick F. 13. Wekesser E. 42. Uzun C. Y. 20. Andersson S.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 23. Treu P. 7. Irvine J. (C) 10. Hartel M. 21. Ritzka L. 24. Metcalfe C. 11. Eggestein J. 26. Saad E.
Substitutes
8. Duman T. 5. Geis J. 3. Gurleyen A. 23. Hungbo J. 46. Kania J. 15. Marquez I. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 11. Okunuki K. 36. Schleimer L.	19. Albers A. 14. Amenyido E. 16. Boukhalfa C. 30. Burchert S. (G) 35. da Silva Moreira E. 36. Kemlein A. 32. Scheller T. 15. Sinani D. 6. Zoller S.
Coaches
Fiel C.	Hurzeler F.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nürnberg won 0.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

St. Pauli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Nürnberg won 2 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 18-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Nürnberg won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
09.03.24	Magdeburg - Nürnberg	0:1 ✺
02.03.24	Nürnberg - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:1 ✺
25.02.24	Greuther Fürth - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Nürnberg - Kaiserslautern	1:1 ✺
09.02.24	Wehen Wiesbaden - Nürnberg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWLTT
- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
10.03.24	St. Pauli - Hertha Berlin	2:0 ✺
01.03.24	Schalke 04 - St. Pauli	3:1 ✺
23.02.24	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	3:4 ✺
18.02.24	St. Pauli - Eintracht Braunschweig	1:0 ✺
10.02.24	Magdeburg - St. Pauli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
07.10.23	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	5:1
29.01.23	Nürnberg - St. Pauli	0:1
16.07.22	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	3:2
29.04.22	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	1:1
28.11.21	Nürnberg - St. Pauli	2:3
14.02.21	Nürnberg - St. Pauli	1:2
19.10.20	St. Pauli - Nürnberg	2:2

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