Match Info

Regionalliga Bayern - Round 11

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Nürnberg II		Illertissen

	1	X	2
	2	3.7	3.1
	1.98	3.92	3.22
	2.05	3.44	3.12
	1.65	3.85	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.65)	3.73 ↓ (3.95)	3.39 ↓ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nürnberg II
48%

Draw
24.7%

Illertissen
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

23.2%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

22.1%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nürnberg II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nürnberg II's form might have worsened.

Illertissen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Illertissen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nürnberg II than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nürnberg II, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Illertissen than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Illertissen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nürnberg II - Illertissen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Glessing Y. ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, Glessing Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
51', 0 - 3, Glessing Y. ⚽,
57', 1 - 3, ⚽,
71', 1 - 4, Cocic M. ⚽,
84', 2 - 4, Scobel P. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 5, Cocic M. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nürnberg II won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Illertissen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Illertissen has had a series of away games.

In this match, Nürnberg II is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nürnberg II won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 41:23. (average 2.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nürnberg II won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:13. (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nürnberg II
German Regionalliga Bayern
23.09.25	Greuther Fürth II - Nürnberg II	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Nürnberg II - Aubstadt	4:0 ✺
13.09.25	Würzburger Kickers - Nürnberg II	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Nürnberg II - Vilzing	1:3 ✺
29.08.25	Unterhaching - Nürnberg II	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTLL
- FV Illertissen
German Regionalliga Bayern
23.09.25	Aubstadt - Illertissen	3:5 ✺
19.09.25	Illertissen - Augsburg II	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Vilzing - Illertissen	0:1 ✺
09.09.25	Memmingen - Illertissen	3:2 ✺
29.08.25	Wacker Burghausen - Illertissen	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Bayern
26.04.25	Nürnberg II - Illertissen	2:0
12.10.24	Illertissen - Nürnberg II	0:2
25.11.23	Illertissen - Nürnberg II	3:1
19.08.23	Nürnberg II - Illertissen	0:2
23.04.23	Nürnberg II - Illertissen	1:1
30.09.22	Illertissen - Nürnberg II	0:1
10.04.22	Nürnberg II - Illertissen	3:1

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