Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 15 - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Oberena		Peña Sport

	1	X	2
	4.25	3.5	1.7
	4.26	3.58	1.75
	4	3.4	1.75
	4.48	3.5	1.69
	4.2	3.5	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.24 ↑ (4.2)	3.5 (3.5)	1.73 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oberena
21.4%

Draw
26%

Peña Sport
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

26.1%

52.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

25.2%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oberena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Peña Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oberena than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peña Sport than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Oberena - Peña Sport Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

(1 - 2)

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

In this match, Peña Sport is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Oberena won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Oberena won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Oberena
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
14.02.26	Egüés - Oberena	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Oberena - Huarte	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Cortes - Oberena	2:3 ✺
24.01.26	Aoiz - Oberena	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Oberena - Izarra	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LLWLT
- Peña Sport
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
14.02.26	Peña Sport - Izarra	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Bidezarra - Peña Sport	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Peña Sport - Txantrea	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Pamplona - Peña Sport	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Peña Sport - Cirbonero	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
27.03.24	Peña Sport - Oberena	1:1
11.11.23	Oberena - Peña Sport	2:2
07.01.23	Oberena - Peña Sport	0:0
11.09.22	Peña Sport - Oberena	1:1

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