Match Info

Date: 11 April 2021, Sunday


	Oita Trinita		Nagoya Grampus

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.1	2	Watch
	4.1	3	1.91
	4.6	2.95	1.9	Watch
	4.5	2.85	1.98
	4.78	2.98	2.06
	4.6	2.9	2	Watch
	4.75	2.88	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.5 ↑ (4.16)	2.95 ↓ (3.22)	1.98 ↑ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oita Trinita
20.9%

Draw
31.8%

Nagoya Grampus
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

29.1%

48.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

23.5%

59.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oita Trinita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nagoya Grampus could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.9%	7.1%	75%

Oita Trinita - Nagoya Grampus Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Oita Trinita will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). Nagoya will win (votes: 21 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 59% – 91%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 16 and 2 in the zone Promotion to AFC Champions League (Qualification)).

Oita Trinita has a very small chance of qualify for acl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Nagoya has a chance of qualify for acl (42%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

Oita Trinita is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nagoya is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Oita Trinita have a series of guest games.

In this match Nagoya is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Oita Trinita won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Oita Trinita won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oita Trinita
Japan J1 League
07.04.21	Vissel Kobe - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
03.04.21	Kawasaki Frontale - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
27.03.21	Tokushima Vortis - Oita Trinita	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
21.03.21	Oita Trinita - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:3 ✺
17.03.21	Cerezo Osaka - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWLL
- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
07.04.21	Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus	0:0 ✺
03.04.21	Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo	0:0 ✺
21.03.21	Kashima Antlers - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 ✺
17.03.21	Nagoya Grampus - Yokohama FC	3:0 ✺
13.03.21	Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
28.11.20	Nagoya Grampus - Oita Trinita	0:0
22.07.20	Oita Trinita - Nagoya Grampus	0:3
05.10.19	Nagoya Grampus - Oita Trinita	1:1
15.06.19	Oita Trinita - Nagoya Grampus	1:1
Japan J League Cup
24.04.19	Oita Trinita - Nagoya Grampus	2:2
13.03.19	Nagoya Grampus - Oita Trinita	2:1
Japan J2 League
09.09.17	Nagoya Grampus - Oita Trinita	0:1

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