Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 27

Date: 15 March 2023, Wednesday

Location: Marschweg-Stadion (Oldenburg)

Referee: Thomsen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Oldenburg		Borussia Dortmund II

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.2	2.38
	2.87	3.25	2.37
	2.95	3.25	2.28
	2.9	3.25	2.35
	3.09	3.43	2.39
	2.8	3.1	2.3
	2.91	3.35	2.31	Watch
	2.85	3.2	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.39)	3.25 ↓ (3.43)	2.34 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oldenburg
31.9%

Draw
28.5%

Borussia Dortmund II
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

26.6%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

26.1%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oldenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oldenburg's form might have worsened.

Borussia Dortmund II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oldenburg than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oldenburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund II than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Borussia Dortmund II, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Oldenburg - Borussia Dortmund II Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Oldenburg will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Borussia Dortmund II will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia Dortmund II: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Oldenburg has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Borussia Dortmund II is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Borussia Dortmund II could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Oldenburg won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Oldenburg
German 3 Bundesliga
11.03.23	Osnabrück - Oldenburg	2:0 ✺
05.03.23	Oldenburg - Duisburg	2:3 ✺
25.02.23	Verl - Oldenburg	2:1 ✺
20.02.23	Oldenburg - Hallescher	0:1 ✺
11.02.23	Elversberg - Oldenburg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Borussia Dortmund II
German 3 Bundesliga
12.03.23	Borussia Dortmund II - Dynamo Dresden	1:3 ✺
03.03.23	Freiburg II - Borussia Dortmund II	1:0 ✺
25.02.23	Borussia Dortmund II - Waldhof Mannheim	4:0 ✺
19.02.23	Rot-Weiß Essen - Borussia Dortmund II	2:0 ✺
11.02.23	Borussia Dortmund II - Saarbrücken	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
10.09.22	Borussia Dortmund II - Oldenburg	1:2

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