Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 12

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Elblag)


	Olimpia Elbląg		GKS Bełchatów

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.6	2.3
	2.02	3.75	2.95
	1.42	4.74	5.89	Watch
	2.49	3.54	2.35	Watch
	2.5	3.7	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.54)	3.87 ↑ (3.63)	3.19 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpia Elbląg
44.4%

Draw
25.1%

GKS Bełchatów
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

25%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

25.6%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpia Elbląg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olimpia Elbląg's performance.

GKS Bełchatów has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and GKS Bełchatów might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Elbląg than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olimpia Elbląg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for GKS Bełchatów than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that GKS Bełchatów could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Olimpia Elbląg - GKS Bełchatów Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Kondracki K. ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Napolov S. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
56', 2 - 1, Kordykiewicz O. ⚽,
70', 3 - 1, Kordykiewicz O. ⚽,
88', 4 - 1, Marucha D. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elbląg won 2.

Elbląg is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Bełchatów has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Elbląg won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Elbląg won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Olimpia Elbląg - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 35.79%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olimpia Elbląg
Polish Division 3 - Group I
04.10.25	Mławianka Mława - Olimpia Elbląg	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Olimpia Elbląg - Troszyn	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Legia II - Olimpia Elbląg	4:2 ✺
13.09.25	Olimpia Elbląg - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	ŁKS Łomża - Olimpia Elbląg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TTLTL
- GKS Bełchatów
Polish Division 3 - Group I
04.10.25	GKS Bełchatów - Wigry Suwałki	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Warta Sieradz - GKS Bełchatów	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	GKS Bełchatów - Wasilków	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mławianka Mława - GKS Bełchatów	2:3 ✺
06.09.25	GKS Bełchatów - Ząbkovia Ząbki	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 2
11.09.21	Olimpia Elbląg - GKS Bełchatów	2:1
23.03.19	GKS Bełchatów - Olimpia Elbląg	1:1
01.09.18	Olimpia Elbląg - GKS Bełchatów	0:1
28.04.18	GKS Bełchatów - Olimpia Elbląg	1:1
30.09.17	Olimpia Elbląg - GKS Bełchatów	1:0
01.04.17	Olimpia Elbląg - GKS Bełchatów	1:2
03.09.16	GKS Bełchatów - Olimpia Elbląg	2:2

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