Match Info

Prva liga - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Stozice (Ljubljana)

Referee: Bubek A. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 5
Slovenia	Sport TV1


	Olimpija Ljubljana		Mura

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.63	3.60	4.80
	1.64	3.50	4.40	Watch
	1.68	3.70	5.72
	1.63	3.82	5.2	Watch
	1.66	3.45	5.65
	1.69	3.47	5.35	Watch
	1.64	3.50	4.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.62)	3.58 ↓ (3.72)	5.15 ↑ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpija Ljubljana
56.1%

Draw
25.9%

Mura
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

24.7%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

23.9%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpija Ljubljana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Mura has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpija Ljubljana than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Mura aligns with the current prediction.

Olimpija Ljubljana - Mura Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vidovsek M. (C) 28. Diga 34. Doffo A. 30. Gorenc J. 9. Kojic D. 8. Lourenco B. 99. Marin A. 90. Miskovic R. 15. Ristic M. 19. Tuci I. 3. Urbancic J.	33. Fermisek Z. (G) 47. Butic S. 7. Kasalo N. 10. Kouter N. 30. Kurtovic K. 56. Matic M. 77. Oroian D. 21. Petrovic Z. 26. Proleta B. 18. Zalaznik A. 3. Zeljkovic A.
Substitutes
14. Bendra K. 18. Brest M. 71. Goga T. 33. Govea J. 55. Henjak M. 54. Jurgec J. 79. Kallon Y. 10. Mitrovski D. 6. Perea L. 22. Pintol D. (G) 11. Rose F. 24. Tamm A.	81. Antonic N. (G) 9. Ascic M. 8. Bobicanec L. 99. Caks R. 71. Dimitrov B. 5. Jelic I. 6. Jevsenak F. 24. Kitin L. 88. Korosec A. 23. Kovacic J. 2. Sana F. 17. Trdin K.
Coaches
Trenchovski J.	Morec M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Tuci I. ⚽,
33', Zeljkovic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
52', 2 - 0, Tuci I. ⚽,
54', 2 - 1, Kasalo N. ⚽,
61', Lourenco B. ↓, Mitrovski D. ↑,
64', Zalaznik A. 🟨,
65', 3 - 1, Marin A. ⚽,
66', Kurtovic K. ↓, Dimitrov B. ↑,
69', 3 - 2, Oroian D. ⚽,
73', Diga 🟨,
74', Dimitrov B. 🟨,
75', Butic S. ↓, Bobicanec L. ↑,
75', Kasalo N. ↓, Jevsenak F. ↑,
78', 3 - 3, Matic M. ⚽,
85', Marin A. ↓, Perea L. ↑,
85', Kojic D. ↓, Lourenco B. ↑,
86', Petrovic Z. 🟨,
86', Kouter N. ↓, Korosec A. ↑,
86', Zalaznik A. ↓, Jelic I. ↑,
90+1', Doffo A. ↓, Tamm A. ↑,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 4th and 9th in the Prva liga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Olimpija won 3.

Olimpija is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Mura has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Olimpija may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Olimpija for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Olimpija has recorded 11 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:15 (averaging 1.5:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Olimpija against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 15:4 goals (averaging 1.5:0.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	O. Ljubljana	11	4	3	4	13:11	2	15
9	Mura	11	2	4	5	13:24	-11	10

Last Results with these Odds

Olimpija Ljubljana - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 56.7%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
Club Friendly
01.10.26	Olimpija Ljubljana - Slaven Belupo	2:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
20.09.26	NK Bravo - Olimpija Ljubljana	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Koper - Olimpija Ljubljana	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Olimpija Ljubljana - Brinje-Grosuplje	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Radomlje - Olimpija Ljubljana	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWWT
- NS Mura
Slovenian PrvaLiga
20.09.26	Mura - Celje	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Mura - Aluminij Kidricevo	1:6 ✺
06.09.26	Maribor - Mura	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	NK Bravo - Mura	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Mura - Koper	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian PrvaLiga
25.07.26	Mura - Olimpija Ljubljana	1:0
04.04.26	Mura - Olimpija Ljubljana	0:0
31.01.26	Olimpija Ljubljana - Mura	1:0
28.09.25	Mura - Olimpija Ljubljana	0:2
19.07.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Mura	1:0
10.05.25	Mura - Olimpija Ljubljana	1:1
12.03.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Mura	2:1

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