Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
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Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
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United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Olympique Marseille		Lorient

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	8	Watch
	1.33	5.75	8
	1.34	5.4	8.3
	1.35	5.66	8.11
	1.00	31.29	31.38	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7
	1.38	5.63	8.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.37)	9.15 ↑ (5.3)	11.36 ↑ (7.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
79.6%

Draw
11.3%

Lorient
9.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.4%

18%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.9%

17.1%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympique Marseille's performance.

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympique Marseille that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.2%	6.8%	4.1%

Olympique Marseille - Lorient Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Marseille (2.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Lorient (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (63 of 71 users predict this - 88.73%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.37% – 96.09%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (21 of 25 users predict this - 84%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 22 - 81.5%). Lorient (votes: 2 - 7.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Lange J. (G) 62. Murillo M. 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 32. Medina F. 8. Gomes A. 19. Kondogbia G. (C) 10. Greenwood M. 26. Nadir B. 22. Weah T. 9. Gouiri A.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. 25. Faye A. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J. 8. Cadiou N. 6. Abergel L. (C) 44. Yongwa D. 17. Makengo J. 29. Karim D. 28. Soumano S.
Substitutes
97. Aubameyang P. 5. Balerdi L. 33. Emerson 23. Hojbjerg P. 17. O'Riley M. 14. Paixao I. 1. Rulli G. (G) 20. Traore H. J. 18. Vermeeren A.	62. Avom A. 9. Bamba M. 33. Bley M. 12. Dieng B. 21. Kamara B. (G) 43. Kouassi A. 11. Le Bris T. 97. Siba S. 15. Tosin A.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
10', Yongwa D. 🟥,
13', 1 - 0, Greenwood M. (Pen),
14', Cadiou N. ↓, Kouassi A. ↑,
20', 2 - 0, Pavard B. ⚽, Greenwood M. (A),
26', Pavard B. 🟨,
33', 3 - 0, Gomes A. ⚽,
44', Gouiri A. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Gomes A. 🟨,
61', Medina F. ↓, Emerson ↑,
61', Kondogbia G. ↓, Hojbjerg P. ↑,
61', Weah T. ↓, Paixao I. ↑,
62', Karim D. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
62', Soumano S. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
62', Makengo J. ↓, Avom A. ↑,
71', Faye A. 🟨,
74', Mvuka Mugisha J. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
78', Pavard B. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,
87', Paixao I. 🟨,
90+3', 4 - 0, Aguerd N. ⚽, Vermeeren A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Marseille is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Egan-Riley C. (Red Card)

There will not play in Lorient: Adjei N. (Ankle Injury) Dieng B. (Coach's decision) Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Pagis P. (Calf Injury) Sanusi T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 38:21. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 2.2:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
31.08.25	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	5:2 ✺
15.08.25	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
02.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWT
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
30.08.25	Lorient - Lille	1:7 ✺
24.08.25	Lorient - Rennes	4:0 ✺
17.08.25	Auxerre - Lorient	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Angers - Lorient	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Swansea City - Lorient	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
12.05.24	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	3:1
10.12.23	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	2:4
09.04.23	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	0:0
14.01.23	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	3:1
08.05.22	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	0:3
17.10.21	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:1
17.04.21	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	3:2

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