Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Roazhon Park (Rennes)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Rennes		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.80	3.50	Watch
	1.98	3.90	3.40
	1.96	3.70	3.40	Watch
	2.03	3.90	3.65
	2.12	4.04	3.06	Watch
	2.01	3.85	3.55
	2.05	3.87	3.40	Watch
	1.98	3.90	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.35)	3.87 ↑ (3.78)	3.43 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rennes
47.5%

Draw
24.7%

Olympique Marseille
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

25%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

25.1%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rennes's performance.

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Olympique Marseille might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rennes than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rennes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Olympique Marseille could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.3%	32.3%	35.5%

Rennes - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Rennes will win (votes: 10 - 32.3%). Marseille will win (votes: 11 - 35.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 32.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 18.7% – 52.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Rennes (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Marseille (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Marseille (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Marseille (2.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (2.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Rennes (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.45) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.50) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Rennes (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Marseille (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Samba B. (G) 95. Frankowski P. 4. Cresswell C. 24. Rouault A. 18. Nagida M. 45. Camara M. 21. Rongier V. (C) 28. Thomasson A. 10. Blas L. 9. Lepaul E. 90. Soumare I.	1. De Lange J. (G) 22. Weah T. (C) 4. Egan-Riley C. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 8. Abdelli H. 23. Hojbjerg P. 77. Harit A. 7. Gomes A. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.
Substitutes
48. Ait Boudlal A. 22. Dia B. 65. Do Marcolino H. 16. Lemaitre N. (G) 12. Mayenda E. 26. Merlin Q. 14. Reynolds B. 17. Szymanski S. 11. Tamari M.	48. Abdallah K. 13. Cornelius D. 25. Garcia U. 42. Kamissoko N. 11. Maupay N. 18. Meite B. 43. Mmadi T. 29. Moumbagna F. 92. Vermot T. (G)
Coaches
Haise F.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Abdelli H. 🟨,
43', Paixao I. 🟨,
43', Frankowski P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Soumare I. ↓, Tamari M. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Thomasson A. ⚽,
65', Gomes A. ↓, Abdallah K. ↑,
68', Frankowski P. ↓, Reynolds B. ↑,
78', Lepaul E. ↓, Dia B. ↑,
78', Blas L. ↓, Szymanski S. ↑,
78', Abdelli H. ↓, Maupay N. ↑,
85', Harit A. 🟨,
86', Tamari M. ↓, Mayenda E. ↑,
88', Paixao I. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,
88', Gouiri A. ↓, Mmadi T. ↑,
88', Aguerd N. ↓, Cornelius D. ↑,
90+4', Weah T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rennes won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Marseille has had a series of home games.

Rennes will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Injury) Nnadi T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rennes won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:30. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Rennes won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.1:1).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Rennes: 3.66% Marseille: 1.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8:9	-1	10
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Last Results with these Odds

Rennes - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 40.18%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Olympique Marseille - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 34.84%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Rennes
French Ligue 1
06.09.26	Angers - Rennes	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Rennes - Le Mans	3:2 ✺
23.08.26	Rennes - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Sunderland - Rennes	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Galatasaray - Rennes	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTLT
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
06.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Al-Shahania	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
17.05.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:1
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	3:0
French Ligue 1
15.08.25	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0
17.05.25	Olympique Marseille - Rennes	4:2
11.01.25	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:2
17.03.24	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	2:0
Coupe De France
21.01.24	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	2:1 penalties

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