Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport Grandstand
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 4
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Sport Austria 7
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	22:00	Ring, Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Ecuador	14:00	ESPN 2
Estonia	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1 Greece
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	22:00	Sport 3
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 4
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Lithuania	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	13:00	Claro Sports
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Paraguay	16:00	ESPN 2
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Grandstand
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Sunrise TV
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	22:00	Tabii Spor 2, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United Kingdom	20:00	HBO Max, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Olympique Marseille		Olympiacos Piraeus

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.25	2.45
	2.80	3.40	2.45
	2.70	3.40	2.55
	2.89	3.41	2.57
	2.44	3.49	2.98	Watch
	2.85	3.35	2.50
	2.77	3.32	2.64
	2.85	3.10	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.16)	3.34 ↓ (3.67)	2.59 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
34.5%

Draw
28.6%

Olympiacos Piraeus
36.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.1%

25.9%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

26.5%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olympique Marseille's form might have worsened.

Olympiacos Piraeus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olympiacos Piraeus's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympiacos Piraeus than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olympiacos Piraeus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.4%	26.3%	26.3%

Olympique Marseille - Olympiacos Piraeus Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Olympiacos will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Olympiacos (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Lange J. (G) 22. Weah T. (C) 18. Meite B. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 8. Abdelli H. 6. Nnadi T. 48. Abdallah K. 7. Gomes A. 14. Paixao I. 11. Maupay N.	1. Ortega S. (G) 2. Saliakas M. 45. Retsos P. (C) 5. Pirola L. 70. Onyemaechi B. 15. Puerta G. 32. Hezze S. 10. Martins G. 22. Chiquinho 20. Jota Silva 11. Yaremchuk R.
Substitutes
74. Bezahaf K. 4. Egan-Riley C. 25. Garcia U. 9. Gouiri A. 77. Harit A. 42. Kamissoko N. 19. Kondogbia G. 46. Koum Mbondo A. 43. Mmadi T. 29. Moumbagna F. 40. Van Neck J. (G) 92. Vermot T. (G)	6. Carmo D. 77. Filis C. 7. Fortounis K. 19. Freuler R. 92. Georgakopoulos I. (G) 34. Gonzalez A. 27. Pedersen M. 8. Sa G. 4. Smajlovic Z. 91. Stournaras D. (G) 71. Tiknizyan N.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Alguacil I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Abdallah K. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Hezze S. ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
44', Retsos P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Onyemaechi B. 🟨,
62', Nnadi T. ↓, Harit A. ↑,
62', Maupay N. ↓, Gouiri A. ↑,
62', Emerson ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
67', Puerta G. ↓, Freuler R. ↑,
67', Yaremchuk R. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
72', Jota Silva ↓, Fortounis K. ↑,
73', Onyemaechi B. ↓, Tiknizyan N. ↑,
75', Gomes A. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,
77', Meite B. 🟨,
80', Abdallah K. ↓, Kondogbia G. ↑,
82', Chiquinho ↓, Sa G. ↑,

Preview

Marseille is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Olympiacos is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Recently, Olympiacos has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Marseille: Cornelius D. (Hip Injury) Hojbjerg P. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Olympiacos: Clayton (Off the roster) El Kaabi A. (Broken Leg) Mouandilmadji M. (Off the roster) Popovic B. (Off the roster) Roca J. (Off the roster) Scipioni L. (Off the roster) Yazici Y. (Knee Injury).

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Marseille has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Marseille against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Olympiacos Piraeus	3	3	0	0	4:1	3	9
34	Marseille	3	0	0	3	1:6	-5	0

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Olympiacos Piraeus: 2.86% Marseille: 1.13%

Last Results with these Odds

Olympiacos Piraeus - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 30.02%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
11.10.26	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Beşiktaş - Olympique Marseille	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.09.26	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 WLLLL
- FC Olympiacos Piraeus
Greek Super League
11.10.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Panathinaikos	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Levadiakos - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
Greek Super League
12.09.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - OFI	0:1 ✺
Greek Cup
08.09.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Volos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
01.12.20	Olympique Marseille - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:1
21.10.20	Olympiacos Piraeus - Olympique Marseille	1:0

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