Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 3

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2
Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	Ligue 1+
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 3
Mexico	Disney+, FOX One, FOX Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Prime
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport Africa
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Olympique Marseille		Paris FC

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.75	3.75	Watch
	1.87	3.70	4.00
	1.92	3.6	3.7	Watch
	1.97	3.8	3.91
	1.91	3.87	3.78	Watch
	1.96	3.75	3.85
	1.97	3.91	3.97	Watch
	1.98	3.8	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.68)	3.77 ↓ (4.04)	3.85 ↓ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
49.6%

Draw
25.4%

Paris FC
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

23.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

22.8%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olympique Marseille's form might have worsened.

Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	7.4%	18.5%

Olympique Marseille - Paris FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). Paris FC will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Lange J. (G) 22. Weah T. (C) 4. Egan-Riley C. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 23. Hojbjerg P. 77. Harit A. 8. Abdelli H. 7. Gomes A. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.	1. Trapp K. (G) 17. Camara A. 31. Chergui S. 42. Coppola D. 14. Traore H. 15. Koleosho L. 10. Kebbal I. 20. Lopez M. 33. Lees-Melou P. (C) 7. Pagis P. 9. Sinayoko L.
Substitutes
48. Abdallah K. 13. Cornelius D. 25. Garcia U. 42. Kamissoko N. 11. Maupay N. 18. Meite B. 43. Mmadi T. 29. Moumbagna F. 92. Vermot T. (G)	25. Kore Y. 11. Krasso J. 4. Marchetti V. 23. Matondo R. 5. Mbow M. 16. Nkambadio O. (G) 27. Simon M. 18. Sissoko O. 8. Zabi P.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Sinayoko L. ⚽, Koleosho L. (A),
8', 1 - 1, Gouiri A. ⚽,
19', 1 - 2, Sinayoko L. ⚽, Pagis P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 2, Gouiri A. ⚽,
64', Pagis P. ↓, Matondo R. ↑,
65', Matondo R. 🟨,
73', Paixao I. ↓, Mmadi T. ↑,
73', Gomes A. ↓, Abdallah K. ↑,
73', Aguerd N. ↓, Cornelius D. ↑,
78', Koleosho L. ↓, Simon M. ↑,
78', Kebbal I. ↓, Zabi P. ↑,
86', 2 - 3, Sinayoko L. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Sinayoko L. 🟨,
90+1', Lopez M. ↓, Mbow M. ↑,
90+1', Sinayoko L. ↓, Sissoko O. ↑,
90+1', Emerson ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
90+1', Abdelli H. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Marseille has had a series of home games.

Recently, Paris FC has had a series of away games.

In this match, Marseille is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Injury) Nnadi T. (Injury)

There will not play in Paris FC: Ikone J. (Hamstring Injury) Mbemba E. (Inactive) Otavio (Injury) Sangui N. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 3.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Marseille won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2.

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Paris FC: 1.81% Marseille: 1.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8:3	5	11
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Last Results with these Odds

Olympique Marseille - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.27%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
30.08.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Al-Shahania	3:0 ✺
30.07.26	Olympique Marseille - Nîmes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLWW
- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
30.08.26	Paris FC - Nice	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Troyes - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Angers - Paris FC	3:2 ✺
01.08.26	Stuttgart - Paris FC	2:2 ✺
24.07.26	Como - Paris FC	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Paris FC - Olympique Marseille	2:2
23.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	5:2

Upcoming Matches