Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Paradis G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 1, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Albania	20:45	SuperSport 3
Argentina	15:45	Disney+
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports 1, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Azerbaijan	22:45	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	20:45	DAZN 2
Bolivia	14:45	ESPN 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	21:45	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	15:45	Disney+
Colombia	13:45	Disney+
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	Viaplay
Ecuador	13:45	ESPN 3
Estonia	21:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	21:45	Viaplay
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	22:45	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	20:45	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 3
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Israel	21:45	5 STARS Israel
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	ART Sport 4
Kyrgyzstan	00:45	Setanta Sports 1
Lithuania	21:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Mexico	12:45	FOX One
Moldova	21:45	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
Nigeria	19:45	Supersport Maximo 2
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	20:45	MaxTV GO
Norway	20:45	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	13:45	Disney+, ESPN 3
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	21:45	Voyo
Russia	21:45	Okko Prime
Serbia	20:45	Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 3
South Korea	03:45	Coupang Play
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Turkey	21:45	beIN Connect
Turkmenistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Uzbekistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+, ESPN 3
International	18:45	OneFootball TV


	Troyes		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.6	2.05	Watch
	3.40	3.70	2.05
	3.35	3.55	2.08	Watch
	3.56	3.72	2.1
	3.15	3.85	2.13	Watch
	3.5	3.7	2.07
	3.66	3.86	2.07	Watch
	3.4	3.7	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↓ (3.6)	3.71 ↓ (3.96)	2.08 ↑ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Troyes
28%

Draw
25.8%

Olympique Marseille
46.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.2%

23.8%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

23.3%

50.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.8%	5.6%	91.7%

Troyes - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Troyes (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (33 of 36 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.64% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Troyes (votes: 1 - 25%). Marseille (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Beach P. (G) 2. Maronnier L. 6. Monfray A. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 5. Gozzi P. 8. Diop M. 29. Karim D. 17. Mille A. 11. Gomis I. 7. Diawara K. 9. Le Douaron J.	12. De Lange J. (G) 74. Bezahaf K. 4. Egan-Riley C. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson (C) 8. Abdelli H. 42. Kamissoko N. 77. Harit A. 7. Gomes A. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.
Substitutes
37. Batola C. 31. Donkor N. 10. Ifnaoui M. 40. Konate H. (G) 23. Nkada T. 26. Phliponeau A. 22. Picard H. 20. Ripart R. 34. Simakha L.	48. Abdallah K. 25. Garcia U. 19. Kondogbia G. 46. Koum Mbondo A. 11. Maupay N. 18. Meite B. 29. Moumbagna F. 6. Nnadi T. 92. Vermot T. (G)
Coaches
Dumont S.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Maronnier L. 🟨,
45', Gomes A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 0 - 1, Harit A. ⚽, Emerson (A),
58', Karim D. 🟨,
61', Gomis I. ↓, Ripart R. ↑,
63', Gouiri A. ↓, Maupay N. ↑,
63', Harit A. ↓, Abdallah K. ↑,
69', Diawara K. ↓, Picard H. ↑,
73', Kamissoko N. ↓, Nnadi T. ↑,
77', Le Douaron J. ↓, Phliponeau A. ↑,
78', Karim D. ↓, Batola C. ↑,
78', Diop M. ↓, Nkada T. ↑,
87', Gomes A. ↓, Kondogbia G. ↑,
87', Paixao I. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,
88', Mille A. 🟨,
90+6', Beach P. 🟨,
90+8', 0 - 2, Abdelli H. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 16th in the Ligue 1 Promotion - Playoffs and 17th in the Relegation - Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 0.

Recent results have been tough for Troyes (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Marseille is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Marseille holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Troyes: Boura I. (Hip Injury) Kone Y. (Injury) Ouzenadji A. (Injury) Titi Y. (Leg Injury).

Confirmed absences for Marseille: Cornelius D. (Hip Injury) Hojbjerg P. (Muscle Injury) Weah T. (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Thigh Injury).

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Troyes has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:22 (averaging 0.8:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Troyes against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 5:7 goals (averaging 1:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Marseille	8	4	0	4	18:13	5	12
17	Troyes	8	1	2	5	5:16	-11	5

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Marseille: 0.82% Troyes: 0.14%

Last Results with these Odds

Troyes - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 26.22%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troyes AC
French Ligue 1
19.09.26	Angers - Troyes	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Lille - Troyes	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Troyes - Strasbourg	2:6 ✺
29.08.26	Lorient - Troyes	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Troyes - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLLWT
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
20.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Beşiktaş - Olympique Marseille	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.09.26	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
16.04.23	Olympique Marseille - Troyes	3:1
11.01.23	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	0:2
27.02.22	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	1:1
28.11.21	Olympique Marseille - Troyes	1:0
15.04.18	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	2:3
20.12.17	Olympique Marseille - Troyes	3:1
14.05.16	Troyes - Olympique Marseille	1:1

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