Match Info

JAPAN: J2 LEAGUE - ROUND 13

Date: 3 May 2023, Wednesday

Location: NACK5 Stadium Omiya (Saitama)

Referee: Enomoto K. (Jpn)


	Omiya Ardija		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	4	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.1	1.98
	3.8	3.1	2.05
	4.08	3.25	2.08
	3.7	3.1	1.95
	3.86	3.35	2	Watch
	3.55	3	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (2.81)	3.16 ↑ (3.1)	2.02 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Omiya Ardija
24.6%

Draw
29.4%

Machida Zelvia
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

29.2%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Omiya Ardija has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Omiya Ardija's form might have worsened.

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Machida Zelvia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Omiya Ardija, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Omiya Ardija - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Omiya will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 59% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Omiya won 0.

Omiya is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Machida Zelvia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Machida Zelvia will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Omiya won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Omiya won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
29.04.23	JEF United Chiba - Omiya Ardija	1:0 ✺
22.04.23	Omiya Ardija - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:3 ✺
16.04.23	Blaublitz Akita - Omiya Ardija	2:1 ✺
12.04.23	Omiya Ardija - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1 ✺
08.04.23	Omiya Ardija - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J2 League
29.04.23	Machida Zelvia - Roasso Kumamoto	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Ventforet Kofu - Machida Zelvia	1:0 ✺
16.04.23	Machida Zelvia - Oita Trinita	3:1 ✺
12.04.23	Júbilo Iwata - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
08.04.23	Machida Zelvia - Blaublitz Akita	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
20.08.22	Omiya Ardija - Machida Zelvia	0:2
30.03.22	Machida Zelvia - Omiya Ardija	3:0
28.11.21	Machida Zelvia - Omiya Ardija	0:0
25.04.21	Omiya Ardija - Machida Zelvia	0:1
21.11.20	Omiya Ardija - Machida Zelvia	0:0
20.09.20	Machida Zelvia - Omiya Ardija	0:0
07.09.19	Omiya Ardija - Machida Zelvia	1:1

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