Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 19

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Referee: Bautista J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Once Caldas		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.35
	2.48	3.35	2.72	Watch
	2.6	3.45	2.81
	2.51	3.46	2.66
	2.45	3.26	2.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.93)	3.37 ↑ (2.88)	2.65 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
36.7%

Draw
27.9%

Atlético Nacional
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

32.3%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

32.8%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Atlético Nacional aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	71.4%	14.3%

Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Parra J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 16. Castano J. 18. Riquett J. 33. Patino J. 88. Mejia R. 10. Sanchez L. 20. Roa A. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A. 17. Moreno D. (C) 9. Gomez P.	15. Castillo H. (G) 6. Roman A. 28. Garcia S. 16. Tesillo W. (C) 20. Casco M. 21. Campuzano J. 8. Uribe M. 18. Bello E. 27. Asprilla D. 29. Sarmiento A. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
12. Aguirre J. (G) 15. Alvarado J. 8. Beltran J. 2. Cardona J. 21. Guzman H. 4. Navarro E. 42. Quinones J. 39. Rincon H. 5. Rojas I.	10. Cardona E. 4. Haydar C. 14. Marin F. 7. Moreno M. 1. Ospina D. (G) 13. Rodriguez N. 24. Rosa J. 5. Uribe C. 80. Zapata J.
Coaches
Herrera H.	Arias D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Castano J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, Sanchez L. ⚽, Zapata Ramirez J. A. (A),
46', Asprilla D. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
52', Morelos A. 🟨,
58', Sanchez L. 🟨,
67', Sarmiento A. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
67', Uribe M. ↓, Zapata J. ↑,
75', Bello E. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
75', Moreno D. ↓, Guzman H. ↑,
75', Roa A. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
83', Sanchez L. ↓, Beltran J. ↑,
84', Gomez P. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
86', Zapata Ramirez J. A. 🟨,
90', Zapata J. 🟨,
90+3', Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↓, Cardona J. ↑,

Preview

Once Caldas is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )

Atlético Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 0.

Once Caldas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético Nacional is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 12:25. (average 0.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atl. Nacional	11	7	2	2	21:10	11	23
9	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16:16	0	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
26.04.26	Rionegro Águilas - Once Caldas	2:2 ✺
20.04.26	Once Caldas - Inter Bogotá	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Deportivo Pereira - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
02.04.26	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
30.03.26	Llaneros SA - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWTTT
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
25.04.26	Deportivo Pereira - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Atlético Nacional - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	2:3 ✺
06.04.26	Atlético Nacional - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
01.04.26	Atlético Nacional - Cúcuta Deportivo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Copa
22.10.25	Atlético Nacional - Once Caldas	2:0
09.10.25	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	0:1
Colombian Primera A
11.07.25	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	1:3
19.06.25	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	1:2
01.06.25	Atlético Nacional - Once Caldas	0:0
25.01.25	Atlético Nacional - Once Caldas	4:0
27.07.24	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	2:0

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