Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Referee: Gracia Benitez L. D. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Once Caldas		Rionegro Águilas

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	5	Watch
	1.98	3.1	3.75
	1.78	3.2	5.15	Watch
	1.78	3.25	5.42
	1.43	4.04	8.21	Watch
	2.05	3	3.8
	1.78	3.26	4.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.06)	3.31 ↑ (3.24)	5.18 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
52.9%

Draw
28.8%

Rionegro Águilas
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

28.9%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

27.9%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Once Caldas's performance.

Rionegro Águilas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rionegro Águilas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Once Caldas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rionegro Águilas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Once Caldas - Rionegro Águilas Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Once Caldas (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 3. Malagon J. 23. Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 30. Tamayo K. 88. Mejia R. 19. Garcia M. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A. 10. Sanchez L. 70. Quinones D. 9. Gomez P.	1. Farinez W. (G) 88. Alfonzo D. 29. Lopes H. 5. Hernandez D. 30. Lara Vasquez N. 22. Lozano F. (C) 6. Blanco Betancur C. 11. Yony Gonzalez 9. Rivaldo J. 33. Oliveros A. 90. Benitez Hernandez R. A.
Substitutes
7. Barrios M. 15. Castano J. 17. Moreno D. 24. Palacios L. 35. Parra J. (G) 39. Rincon Jacome H. 5. Rojas I. 32. Rojas T. 28. Zuleta M.	18. Cosme H. 34. Guerra Navarro S. (G) 26. Lozano D. 32. Mena J. 19. Morelo W. 99. Obregon J. 37. Ramirez M. 2. Rodriguez S. 15. Suarez Chalare F. A.
Coaches
Herrera H.	de Muner P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Malagon J. 🟨,
21', Sanchez L. 🟨,
24', Alfonzo D. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ⚽, Garcia M. (A),
43', Mejia R. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Rivaldo J. ⚽, Yony Gonzalez (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Malagon J. ↓, Castano J. ↑,
46', Quinones D. ↓, Barrios M. ↑,
48', Lopes H. 🟨,
55', Gomez P. ↓, Zuleta M. ↑,
60', Oliveros A. 🟨,
65', Alfonzo D. ↓, Lozano D. ↑,
65', Benitez Hernandez R. A. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
69', Sanchez L. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
74', Rivaldo J. ↓, Obregon J. ↑,
74', Blanco Betancur C. ↓, Mena J. ↑,
75', Tamayo K. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
88', Yony Gonzalez ↓, Morelo W. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 2.

Once Caldas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Rionegro Águilas has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Rionegro Águilas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Once Caldas could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Once Caldas - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.48%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
03.08.25	Deportivo Pereira - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
30.07.25	Once Caldas - Patriotas	6:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
26.07.25	Once Caldas - Junior Barranquilla	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.07.25	Once Caldas - San Antonio Bulo Bulo	4:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
20.07.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWTWL
- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
03.08.25	Rionegro Águilas - Fortaleza CEIF	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	América de Cali - Rionegro Águilas	2:1 ✺
22.07.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Rionegro Águilas	0:0 ✺
19.07.25	Rionegro Águilas - Junior Barranquilla	2:3 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Rionegro Águilas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
22.02.25	Rionegro Águilas - Once Caldas	0:1
20.07.24	Once Caldas - Rionegro Águilas	1:0
25.01.24	Rionegro Águilas - Once Caldas	1:0
04.08.23	Rionegro Águilas - Once Caldas	2:1
11.02.23	Once Caldas - Rionegro Águilas	1:2
18.07.22	Once Caldas - Rionegro Águilas	2:0
29.01.22	Rionegro Águilas - Once Caldas	1:1

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