Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Referee: Ramirez M. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
Spain	beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol
Uruguay	DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	DSports 1, Inter
World	Disney+


	Once Caldas		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.2	2.95	2.37
	3.25	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.33	3.16	2.31	Watch
	3.2	2.9	2.3	Watch
	3.3	3.08	2.31	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↓ (3.91)	3.06 ↓ (3.27)	2.31 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS Xtra En Español

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
28.7%

Draw
30.7%

Fluminense
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

28.6%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

28%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fluminense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Once Caldas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fluminense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Once Caldas - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 34. Cardona J. 3. Malagon J. 33. Patino J. 5. Rojas I. 20. Garcia Castillo A. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A. 19. Garcia M. 7. Barrios M. 17. Moreno D.	1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 8. Martinelli 35. Hercules 21. Arias J. 45. Lima 17. Canobbio A. 14. Cano G.
Substitutes
9. Alvarez G. 31. Arteaga M. 15. Castano J. 16. Contreras J. 6. Diaz J. 30. Dorrego H. 2. Garcia J. 24. Palacios L. 35. Parra J. (G) 18. Riquett J. 4. Rodas M. 28. Zuleta M.	5. Bernal F. 9. Everaldo 4. Ignacio 11. Keno 19. Lavega J. 18. Lezcano R. 26. Manoel 16. Nonato 2. Samuel Xavier 90. Serna K. 29. Thiago Santos 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Herrera H.	Marcao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Cuesta Santos J. D. 🟨,
18', Canobbio A. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Cano G. ⚽, Arias J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
63', Rojas I. ↓, Arteaga M. ↑,
66', Canobbio A. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
66', Lima ↓, Lezcano R. ↑,
68', Garcia Castillo A. 🟨,
70', Garcia M. 🟨,
70', Hercules ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
73', Garcia M. ↓, Castano J. ↑,
79', Garcia Castillo A. ↓, Zuleta M. ↑,
79', Barrios M. ↓, Contreras J. ↑,
83', Cano G. ↓, Everaldo ↑,
84', Guga ↓, Samuel Xavier ↑,
90+2', Martinelli 🟨,
90+3', Arteaga M. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Once Caldas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fluminense have a series of guest games.

Fluminense will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
27.03.25	Once Caldas - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Deportivo Pereira - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Once Caldas - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
10.03.25	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.25	Once Caldas - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTLLW
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	Fortaleza - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
16.03.25	Flamengo - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
12.03.25	Fluminense - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
09.03.25	Volta Redonda - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.03.25	Caxias - Fluminense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTLTW

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