Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa)


	Operário Ferroviario		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	4	3.1	2.05
	3.5	3	2
	3.75	3.1	2.1
	3.52	3.35	2.08
	4.06	3.1	2.08
	3.5	3.2	2
	3.78	3.18	2.06
	3.85	3.05	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↓ (4.2)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)	2.05 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Operário Ferroviario
24.9%

Draw
29.7%

Grêmio
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

28.2%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

29.7%

52.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Operário Ferroviario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	9.1%	72.7%

Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Operário PR will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Grêmio will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Santos (C) 28. Pacheco 21. Fagner Alemao 4. Willian Machado 29. Dudu Scheit 6. Para 11. Felipe Augusto 19. Rodrigo Lindoso 8. Vinicius Diniz 25. Marcelo Cirino 90. Ronaldo	97. Caique (G) 18. Joao Pedro 53. Gustavo Martins 36. Nata 46. Ze Guilherme 20. Villasanti M. (C) 23. Pepe 10. Cristaldo F. 13. Everton Galdino 19. Costa D. 39. Gustavo Nunes
Substitutes
10. Cassio Gabriel 9. Felipe Garcia 91. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 22. Guilherme Pira 5. Indio 55. Jacy 30. Joseph 13. Lucas Hipolito 77. Maxwell 88. Neto Paraiba 70. Pedro Lucas 23. Savio	22. Besozzi L. 8. Carballo F. 17. Dodi 37. Du Queiroz 15. Edenilson 11. Joao Pedro 1. Marchesin A. (G) 14. Nathan 32. Nathan Fernandes 5. Rodrigo Ely 35. Ronald 51. Wesley Costa
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Gustavo Martins ↓, Rodrigo Ely ↑,
33', Pepe 🟨,
37', Costa D. 🟨,
40', Willian Machado 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Felipe Augusto ↓, Maxwell ↑,
46', Dudu Scheit ↓, Cassio Gabriel ↑,
46', Para ↓, Lucas Hipolito ↑,
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Edenilson ↑,
46', Pepe ↓, Dodi ↑,
66', Marcelo Cirino ↓, Guilherme Pira ↑,
66', Cristaldo F. ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
75', Vinicius Diniz ↓, Pedro Lucas ↑,
75', Dodi 🟨,
78', Villasanti M. 🟨,
81', Costa D. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
90+2', Rafael Guanaes 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Grêmio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Grêmio will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Operário Ferroviario won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Operário Ferroviario won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.24	Ituano - Operário Ferroviario	0:2 ✺
19.04.24	Operário Ferroviario - Avaí	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
27.03.24	Athletico Paranaense - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Operário Ferroviario - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
11.03.24	Operário Ferroviario - Azuriz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLLW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.24	Bahia - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Grêmio	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Grêmio - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
17.04.24	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
14.04.24	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
09.08.22	Grêmio - Operário Ferroviario	5:1
27.04.22	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio	0:1

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