Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi (La Plata)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Estudiantes La Plata		Grêmio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.2	4
	1.95	3.3	4	Watch
	1.95	3.38	4.35
	1.94	3.38	4.36
	1.91	3.25	3.8
	1.98	3.38	4.02	Watch
	1.96	3.2	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.11)	3.3 ↑ (3.29)	4.06 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes La Plata
48.3%

Draw
28.5%

Grêmio
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

28.4%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

28.3%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	26.3%	0%

Estudiantes La Plata - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Estudiantes will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estudiantes: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mansilla M. (G) 14. Mancuso E. 26. Lollo L. 2. Romero Z. 13. Benedetti G. 5. Ascacibar S. 22. Perez E. 32. Palacios T. 7. Sosa J. 18. Cetre E. 27. Correa J.	1. Marchesin A. (G) 18. Joao Pedro 3. Pedro Geromel (C) 4. Walter Kannemann 2. Fabio 13. Everton Galdino 20. Villasanti M. 23. Pepe 10. Cristaldo F. 7. Soteldo Y. 11. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
9. Carrillo G. 19. Castillo Manyoma A. 3. Fernandez N. 4. Flores S. 1. Iacovich F. (G) 24. Kociubinski B. 16. Mendez M. 20. Meza E. 10. Piatti P. 15. Zapiola F. 25. Zozaya J. (G) 8. Zuqui F.	31. Caique (G) 17. Dodi 37. Du Queiroz 53. Gustavo Martins 39. Gustavo Nunes 36. Nata 14. Nathan 32. Nathan Fernandes 5. Rodrigo Ely 35. Ronald 51. Wesley Costa 46. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Palacios T. 🟨,
32', Cristaldo F. 🟨,
35', Pedro Geromel ↓, Rodrigo Ely ↑,
36', Everton Galdino 🟨,
45+2', Villasanti M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Perez E. 🟨,
62', Correa J. ↓, Carrillo G. ↑,
62', Sosa J. ↓, Piatti P. ↑,
67', Villasanti M. 🟨,
68', Marchesin A. 🟨,
69', Joao Pedro 🟨,
71', Soteldo Y. ↓, Gustavo Nunes ↑,
71', Cristaldo F. ↓, Dodi ↑,
71', Everton Galdino ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
71', Lollo L. ↓, Mendez M. ↑,
76', 0 - 1, Nathan Fernandes ⚽, Gustavo Nunes (A),
87', Joao Pedro ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
90', Fabio 🟨,

Preview

Estudiantes in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Grêmio is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

Estudiantes will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Estudiantes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Estudiantes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
20.04.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Barracas Central	3:0 ✺
16.04.24	Lanús - Estudiantes La Plata	1:2 ✺
12.04.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Boca Juniors	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Estudiantes La Plata - The Strongest	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.04.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Central Córdoba	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWTWW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Grêmio - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
17.04.24	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
14.04.24	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Grêmio - Huachipato	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.04.24	Grêmio - Juventude	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
28.08.18	Grêmio - Estudiantes La Plata	3:1 penalties
07.08.18	Estudiantes La Plata - Grêmio	2:1

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