Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 24

Date: 2 September 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio Germano Krüger (Ponta Grossa)

Referee: Santos Sa Junior F. A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Operário Ferroviario		Brusque

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.1	6	Watch
	1.68	3.1	5.5
	1.72	3.25	5.5
	1.7	3.2	6.98
	1.67	3.16	6.72	Watch
	1.7	3.2	5.5
	1.72	3.26	5.67	Watch
	1.72	3.25	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.79)	3.19 ↓ (3.35)	5.92 ↑ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Operário Ferroviario
54.9%

Draw
29.3%

Brusque
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

27.7%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.4%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Operário Ferroviario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Operário Ferroviario that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brusque could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	18.2%	27.3%

Operário Ferroviario - Brusque Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Operário PR will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Brusque will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Operário PR: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Santos (G) 72. Thales Oleques 21. Fagner Alemao 4. Willian Machado 13. Lucas Hipolito 55. Jacy 5. Indio 16. Boschilia 11. Felipe Augusto 9. Vinicius Mingotti 7. Rodrigo Farofa	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 97. Mateus Pivo 2. Everton Alemao 4. Wallace (C) 21. Luiz Henrique 5. Rodolfo Potiguar 30. Lorran 19. Marcos Serrato 94. Paulinho Moccelin 9. Pollero R. 27. Diego Mathias
Substitutes
3. Allan Godoi 99. Daniel Lima 38. Filipe Claudino 91. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 30. Joseph 10. Marco Antonio 77. Maxwell 88. Neto Paraiba 6. Para 70. Pedro Lucas 23. Savio 8. Vinicius Diniz	11. Diego Tavares 7. Dionisio 35. Georgemy (G) 17. Guilherme Queiroz 3. Ianson 8. Jhemerson 6. Lima G. 33. Madison 77. Ocampo M. 80. Osman 16. Torres J.
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Luizinho Vieira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Everton Alemao 🟨,
23', Rodrigo Farofa 🟨,
38', Diego Mathias 🟨,
39', Paulinho Moccelin 🟨,
43', Pollero R. ↓, Ocampo M. ↑,
45+3', Wallace 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodrigo Farofa ↓, Maxwell ↑,
55', Indio ↓, Pedro Lucas ↑,
61', Paulinho Moccelin ↓, Osman ↑,
61', Rodolfo Potiguar ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
64', Vinicius Mingotti ↓, Daniel Lima ↑,
64', Lucas Hipolito ↓, Para ↑,
77', Lorran ↓, Madison ↑,
77', Luiz Henrique ↓, Torres J. ↑,
78', Madison 🟨,
86', Jacy ↓, Vinicius Diniz ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Operário PR won 1.

Recent matches Operário PR is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Brusque is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Operário PR could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Operário PR is a favorite.

There will not play in Brusque: Keke (Injury) Marcelo Nunes (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Operário PR won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Operário PR won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Operário Ferroviario
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
01.09.24	Operário Ferroviario - Amora	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.08.24	Ponte Preta - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
20.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	2:3 ✺
15.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - Ituano	1:2 ✺
09.08.24	Avaí - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWLLL
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie B
27.08.24	Brusque - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
21.08.24	Goiás - Brusque	4:1 ✺
18.08.24	Brusque - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
09.08.24	Mirassol - Brusque	2:0 ✺
02.08.24	Brusque - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
15.05.24	Brusque - Operário Ferroviario	0:0
Brazilian Serie C
23.09.23	Operário Ferroviario - Brusque	1:2
17.09.23	Brusque - Operário Ferroviario	4:3
26.08.23	Operário Ferroviario - Brusque	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
13.10.22	Operário Ferroviario - Brusque	0:0
01.07.22	Brusque - Operário Ferroviario	2:0
19.11.21	Brusque - Operário Ferroviario	2:0

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