Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 23

Date: 23 August 2024, Friday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Ponte Preta		Operário Ferroviario

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.5	Watch
	2.15	2.85	3.5
	2.25	2.9	3.6
	2.31	2.95	3.87
	2.24	2.86	3.73	Watch
	2.2	3	3.4
	2.19	3.05	3.56	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.23)	2.94 ↓ (3.2)	3.6 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
42.1%

Draw
31.9%

Operário Ferroviario
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

29%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

25.8%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Operário Ferroviario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ponte Preta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Operário Ferroviario could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Ponte Preta - Operário Ferroviario Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ponte Preta will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Rocha (G) 58. Thomas Luciano 4. Mateus Silva 6. Sergio Raphael 33. Risso G. 15. Castro 8. Emerson Santos 10. Elvis (C) 29. Everton Brito 9. Jeh 35. Gabriel Novaes	1. Rafael Santos (G) 72. Thales Oleques 21. Fagner Alemao 4. Willian Machado 13. Lucas Hipolito 5. Indio 55. Jacy 16. Boschilia 11. Felipe Augusto 9. Vinicius Mingotti (C) 7. Rodrigo Farofa
Substitutes
7. Dodo 18. Emerson Santos 80. Hudson 11. Iago Dias 16. Jean Carlos 13. Joilson 77. Matheus Regis 21. Ramon 19. Renato 20. Vasconcelos J. 12. William (G)	14. Borech 99. Daniel Lima 38. Filipe Claudino 27. Gabriel Feliciano 91. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 30. Joseph 10. Marco Antonio 77. Maxwell 88. Neto Paraiba 70. Pedro Lucas 23. Savio 8. Vinicius Diniz
Coaches
Baptista N.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', Everton Brito ↓, Matheus Regis ↑,
65', Emerson Santos ↓, Ramon ↑,
65', Gabriel Novaes ↓, Iago Dias ↑,
66', Felipe Augusto ↓, Maxwell ↑,
68', Mateus Silva 🟨,
72', Boschilia ↓, Pedro Lucas ↑,
72', Vinicius Mingotti ↓, Daniel Lima ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Daniel Lima ⚽, Pedro Lucas (A),
77', Thomas Luciano ↓, Vasconcelos J. ↑,
79', Jeh ↓, Renato ↑,
83', Jacy ↓, Joseph ↑,
83', Thales Oleques ↓, Savio ↑,
87', Rodrigo Farofa 🟨,
90+3', Vasconcelos J. 🟨,
90+6', Renato 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponte Preta won 2.

Recent matches Ponte Preta is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Operário PR is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Operário PR could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ponte Preta will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Ponte Preta won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Ponte Preta won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
20.08.24	Amazonas - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
16.08.24	Ponte Preta - Goiás	1:1 ✺
11.08.24	Coritiba - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
04.08.24	Ponte Preta - Avaí	1:0 ✺
27.07.24	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTWL
- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
20.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	2:3 ✺
15.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - Ituano	1:2 ✺
09.08.24	Avaí - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
04.08.24	Operário Ferroviario - CRB Maceio	2:0 ✺
27.07.24	Mirassol - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
11.05.24	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	1:1
30.07.22	Ponte Preta - Operário Ferroviario	3:0
16.04.22	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	2:0
22.09.21	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	1:2
22.06.21	Ponte Preta - Operário Ferroviario	0:0
14.12.20	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	1:0
19.09.20	Ponte Preta - Operário Ferroviario	1:1

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