Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Championship Soccer Stadium (Irvine, CA)

Referee: Hassan M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Orange County SC		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.42	3.15	2.72
	2.72	3.25	2.9
	2.41	3.23	2.9	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.63
	2.56	3.27	2.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.44)	3.16 ↑ (3.07)	2.77 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orange County SC
36.9%

Draw
29.5%

Lexington
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

30%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

29.1%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Orange County SC - Lexington Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Orange County SC (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Orange County SC (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rando A. (G) 21. War M. 5. Brewitt T. 6. Tubbs G. 4. Benalcazar N. 19. Partida K. 17. Johnson J. 18. Palomino M. 27. Kelly S. 10. Hegardt C. 11. MacKinnon L.	17. Semmle O. (G) 2. Greene J. 5. Burks K. 4. Ordonez A. 23. Brown J. 6. Molloy A. (C) 12. Zengue X. 16. Ferri B. 18. Henry-Scott M. 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.
Substitutes
12. Bazini Y. 23. Doghman R. 2. Doody G. 13. Guimaraes P. 31. Kadono T. (G) 22. Marinch A. 25. Solis E. 8. Sylla O. 9. Zubak E.	40. Addams G. (G) 10. Adedokun M. 30. Blessing L. 22. Hafferty J. 11. Midence A. 21. Muir M. 8. Nick Firmino 19. Scott T.
Coaches
Stone D.	Hemmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Brewitt T. 🟨,
41', Greene J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Palomino M. ↓, Sylla O. ↑,
60', Johnson J. ↓, Zubak E. ↑,
65', Zengue X. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
71', MacKinnon L. 🟨,
71', Kelly S. ↓, Doghman R. ↑,
76', Henry-Scott M. ↓, Blessing L. ↑,
79', MacKinnon L. ↓, Guimaraes P. ↑,
79', Hegardt C. ↓, Bazini Y. ↑,
90', Burks K. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).

Orange County SC has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lexington is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Orange County SC may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Orange County SC won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Orange County SC - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.66%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orange County SC
USL Championship
11.04.26	Tulsa - Orange County SC	0:1 ✺
08.04.26	Orange County SC - San Antonio	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Orange County SC - New Mexico United	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.26	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	1:2 ET ✺
USL Championship
28.03.26	Oakland Roots - Orange County SC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WWLLW
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
11.04.26	Lexington - Rhode Island	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Lexington	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.26	Lexington - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
USL Championship
29.03.26	San Antonio - Lexington	2:0 ✺
25.03.26	Lexington - Brooklyn	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
12.09.25	Lexington - Orange County SC	1:1
15.03.25	Orange County SC - Lexington	2:2

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