Match Info

Premier League - Round 28

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Gazovik Stadium (Orenburg)

Referee: Bobrovsky Y. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2


	Orenburg		Khimki

	1	X	2
	2.16	4.05	3.16
	1.94	3.98	3.78	Watch
	2.06	3.75	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.2)	3.93 ↓ (3.96)	3.33 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orenburg
46.7%

Draw
24.4%

Khimki
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

24.9%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

24%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Khimki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Khimki than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Orenburg - Khimki Predictions

Users Predictions: Orenburg will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Orenburg will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Sysuev N. (G) 8. Basic I. 7. Gurluk E. 38. Kasimov A. 12. Malykh A. 9. Mansilla B. 87. Prokhin D. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 90. Savelyev M. 5. Tataev A. 31. Zotov G.	87. Kokarev N. (G) 18. Bakaev Z. 17. Berkovskiy I. 77. Corredera A. 14. Dzhikiya G. 72. Fernandez D. 25. Filin A. 22. Mejia R. 5. Stepanov D. 32. Vera L. 91. Zabolotnyi A.
Substitutes
96. Baranovsky A. 35. Karatas K. 4. Khotulev D. 88. Koserik N. 80. Marin J. 14. Mikhailov Y. 24. Muro T. 11. Oganesyan S. 77. Revazov A. 50. Skichko E. (G) 59. Syshchenko M. 85. Tyulenev N. (G)	29. Amian B. 97. Magomedov B. 6. Melentijevic S. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 99. Orinho 9. Rudenko A. 7. Sadygov I.
Coaches
Sliskovic V.	Adiev M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Savelyev M. 🟨,
15', Mansilla B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Mejia R. 🟨,
51', Malykh A. ↓, Karatas K. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Karatas K. ⚽,
62', Kasimov A. ↓, Mikhailov Y. ↑,
66', Bakaev Z. 🟨,
67', Zabolotnyi A. ↓, Rudenko A. ↑,
75', Corredera A. ↓, Magomedov B. ↑,
75', Berkovskiy I. ↓, Orinho ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Rudenko A. ⚽,
81', Gurluk E. ↓, Revazov A. ↑,
81', Mansilla B. ↓, Oganesyan S. ↑,
90+2', Revazov A. 🟨,
90+5', Bakaev Z. ↓, Amian B. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 2.

Orenburg has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Khimki is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Orenburg could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Orenburg: Florentin G. (Injury) Moskvichev B. (Knee Injury) Saharkhizan S. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Khimki: Farina E. (Muscle Injury) Luna D. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 2.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Orenburg
Russian Premier League
03.05.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Krylya Sovetov - Orenburg	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Orenburg - Dynamo Makhachkala	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Orenburg - CSKA Moscow	0:2 ✺
04.04.25	Nizhny Novgorod - Orenburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TLWLW
- FC Khimki
Russian Premier League
04.05.25	Khimki - Rostov	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Khimki - Akron Tolyatti	2:2 ✺
20.04.25	Zenit - Khimki	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Khimki - Krylya Sovetov	1:3 ✺
06.04.25	Dynamo Makhachkala - Khimki	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
23.10.24	Orenburg - Khimki	2:0
Russian Premier League
22.09.24	Khimki - Orenburg	0:0
Russian Cup
31.07.24	Khimki - Orenburg	1:0
Club Friendly
23.02.23	Khimki - Orenburg	2:5
Russian Premier League
04.11.22	Khimki - Orenburg	2:0
03.09.22	Orenburg - Khimki	3:1
Russian Cup
31.10.19	Orenburg - Khimki	1:2

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