Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 19

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Orense		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.82	Watch
	2.10	2.90	3.30
	2.42	2.98	2.98	Watch
	2.57	2.94	3.18
	2.3	2.88	3.55	Watch
	2.5	2.85	3.1
	2.53	3.03	2.9	Watch
	2.4	2.9	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.1)	2.94 ↓ (3.25)	3.1 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orense
38.5%

Draw
31.6%

Emelec
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

28.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

28.6%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Orense's form might have worsened.

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Orense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Orense - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Orense will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Emelec will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ortiz J. (G) 31. Velasco P. (C) 5. Lorenzo A. 3. Mina S. 15. Caicedo B. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S. 7. Vasquez S. 21. Rostagno G. 11. Herrera A. 13. Mena A. 10. Parrales M.	12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 2. Leguizamon A. (C) 4. Segura E. 3. Guerrico I. 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 8. Napoli G. 10. Pizzini F. 7. Klimowicz L. 19. Ruiz J.
Substitutes
8. Armas D. 19. Bermudez M. 6. Callegari S. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 14. Pluas E. 2. Quinonez B. 4. Quinonez S. 33. Quintero D. 12. Silva R. (G) 59. Vera J. 77. Vinan B.	17. Ayovi J. 21. Cevallos J. 15. Fragozo L. 27. Leon F. 30. Mina A. 9. Neris J. 16. Quintero S. 28. Tobar B. 51. Valencia S. 1. Valero M. (G) 24. Viteri A.
Coaches
Torres H.	Nasuti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Ruiz J. ⚽, Pizzini F. (A),
23', Guerrico I. 🟨,
25', Mina S. 🟨,
32', Rostagno G. 🟨,
36', Velasco P. 🟨,
36', Velasco P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rostagno G. ↓, Quinonez B. ↑,
55', Parrales M. ↓, Bermudez M. ↑,
59', Guerrico I. 🟨,
62', Pizzini F. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
72', Mena A. ↓, Quintero D. ↑,
72', Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↓, Garces L. ↑,
76', Napoli G. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
76', Mina A. ↓, Valencia S. ↑,
79', Herrera A. 🟨,
82', Vasquez S. 🟨,
85', Caicedo B. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
86', Klimowicz L. ↓, Quintero S. ↑,
86', Ruiz J. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
90', Ortiz J. 🟨,
90+6', 0 - 2, Quintero S. ⚽, Fragozo L. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 0.

Orense has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Emelec has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Orense might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.5:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.07.26	Manta - Orense	0:0 ✺
06.07.26	Orense - Técnico Universitario	1:2 ✺
01.07.26	LDU Quito - Orense	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
27.05.26	Vinotinto - Orense	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.26	Orense - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.07.26	Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	Delfín - Emelec	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Emelec - Deportivo Macará	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
20.05.26	Daquilema - Emelec	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.03.26	Emelec - Orense	2:1
28.09.25	Orense - Emelec	0:0
31.05.25	Emelec - Orense	1:0
01.09.24	Emelec - Orense	2:1
25.03.24	Orense - Emelec	1:1
13.08.23	Emelec - Orense	0:0
05.03.23	Orense - Emelec	2:1

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