Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Jocay (Manta)

Referee: Quinonez L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Manta		Orense

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.00	2.85	Watch
	2.42	3.00	2.80
	2.63	3.15	3.02
	2.88	3.09	2.54	Watch
	2.50	3.00	2.95
	2.52	3.03	2.93	Watch
	2.42	3.05	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.51)	3.05 ↓ (3.15)	2.84 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manta
36.6%

Draw
30.6%

Orense
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

29.4%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

29.5%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manta than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

Manta - Orense Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Manta will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Orense will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/E Goals, 2nd Half - even (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/E Goals, 1st Half - even (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Zambrano F. (C) 23. Medina A. 24. Moscarelli O. 31. Mina G. 21. Ortiz M. 55. Verges J. 6. Jimenez J. 5. Ramirez B. 27. Troya J. 9. Blanco J. 17. Angulo J.	12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. 24. Achilier G. (C) 5. Lorenzo A. 15. Caicedo B. 30. Burgoa V. 26. Molina N. 51. Ortiz C. 11. Herrera A. 19. Bermudez M. 10. Parrales M.
Substitutes
19. Alman J. 10. Burbano R. 33. Castillo A. 7. Chala W. 1. Chavez W. (G) 28. Ledesma A. 14. Mina J. 25. Monaga J. 70. Nazareno J. 99. Pico E. (G) 52. Rialpe J. 8. Valencia M.	74. Barrio C. 6. Callegari S. 23. Chuchuca W. 53. Garces L. 25. Jaramilo R. 57. Mairongo S. 13. Mena A. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 2. Quinonez B. 21. Rostagno G. 77. Vinan B.
Coaches
Duarte R.	Robles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', Velasco P. 🟨,
22', Mina G. 🟨,
27', Silva R. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
29', 1 - 0, Angulo J. ⚽, Troya J. (A),
35', 2 - 0, Blanco J. (Penalty Awarded),
45', Achilier G. 🟨,
45', Moscarelli O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Angulo J. ↓, Alman J. ↑,
55', Mina G. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
56', Parrales M. 🟨,
56', Jimenez J. 🟨,
64', Velasco P. ↓, Barrio C. ↑,
64', Parrales M. ↓, Mena A. ↑,
64', Bermudez M. ↓, Chuchuca W. ↑,
65', Jimenez J. ↓, Nazareno J. ↑,
65', Blanco J. ↓, Ledesma A. ↑,
66', Troya J. 🟨,
74', Verges J. ↓, Burbano R. ↑,
80', Burgoa V. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
85', Alman J. 🟨,
86', 2 - 1, Mena A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manta won 0.

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

Manta could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Manta has recorded 2 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:7 (averaging 0.7:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Manta against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:2 goals (averaging 0.4:0.4 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Manta - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.84%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manta FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.09.26	Manta - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
07.09.26	Emelec - Manta	1:0 ✺
02.09.26	Deportivo Macará - Manta	4:3 ✺
29.08.26	Manta - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Manta	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TLLWL
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.09.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Orense	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Orense - Guayaquil City	4:3 ✺
03.09.26	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Orense - Deportivo Macará	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Orense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.07.26	Manta - Orense	0:0
09.03.26	Orense - Manta	1:1
23.06.25	Manta - Orense	0:0
23.02.25	Orense - Manta	2:1
28.08.21	Manta - Orense	0:0
04.04.21	Orense - Manta	0:1
Ecuadorian Serie B
08.12.19	Orense - Manta	2:1

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