Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 18

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Contreras O. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Emelec		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	3.40	2.85	2.25	Watch
	3.20	2.80	2.20
	3.15	3.05	2.30	Watch
	3.31	3.17	2.41
	3.2	2.91	2.45	Watch
	3.35	2.95	2.30
	3.30	3.00	2.31	Watch
	3.25	2.85	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.16)	2.95 ↓ (3.05)	2.31 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
28.4%

Draw
31.5%

Barcelona Guayaquil
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

30.4%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

29.7%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Emelec's form might have worsened.

Barcelona Guayaquil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barcelona Guayaquil's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+15.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Emelec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barcelona Guayaquil, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Barcelona will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Emelec (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Emelec (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 27. Leon F. 51. Valencia S. 3. Guerrico I. 10. Pizzini F. (C) 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 8. Napoli G. 15. Fragozo L. 7. Klimowicz L.	1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 33. Baez J. 14. Rangel A. 15. Perlaza J. 32. Lugo M. 35. Intriago J. 16. Cano L. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 51. Wila J. 63. Caidedo K.
Substitutes
17. Ayovi J. 18. Carabali M. 21. Cevallos J. 2. Leguizamon A. 30. Mina A. 9. Neris J. 16. Quintero S. 19. Ruiz J. 4. Segura E. 28. Tobar B. 1. Valero M. (G) 24. Viteri A.	9. Benedetto D. 26. Castillo B. 22. Cevallos J. (G) 50. Garcia J. 17. Gaspar D. 29. Medina J. 70. Mejia M. 7. Mideros E. 25. Perlaza R. 4. Vallecilla G. 27. Vargas W. 21. Villalba H.
Coaches
Nasuti C.	Farias Acosta C. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', (Penalty overturned),
41', Farias Acosta C. A. 🟨,
45', Intriago J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Caidedo K. ↓, Benedetto D. ↑,
46', Cano L. ↓, Villalba H. ↑,
58', Perlaza J. ↓, Mideros E. ↑,
58', Wila J. ↓, Vallecilla G. ↑,
72', Fragozo L. ↓, Ruiz J. ↑,
72', Pizzini F. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
80', Contreras J. 🟨,
84', Klimowicz L. ↓, Neris J. ↑,
84', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
87', Mideros E. 🟨,
90+1', Napoli G. ↓, Tobar B. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Barcelona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Barcelona has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.9:1.4).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	32:25	7	44

Last Results with these Odds

Emelec - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.98%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.07.26	Delfín - Emelec	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Emelec - Deportivo Macará	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
20.05.26	Daquilema - Emelec	1:0 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.05.26	Manta - Emelec	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWWLT
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.07.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
01.06.26	Técnico Universitario - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.05.26	Cruzeiro - Barcelona Guayaquil	4:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.05.26	Delfín - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.05.26	Universidad Católica - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	1:0
14.09.25	Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:4
18.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	2:0
Club Friendly
11.02.25	Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.10.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	2:1
28.04.24	Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1
12.11.23	Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0

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