Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 26

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday


	Oriental		Serpa

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.3
	2.03	3.09	3.37
	2.05	3.26	3.34	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.3
	2.04	3.16	3.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.31)	3.1 ↓ (3.28)	3.34 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oriental
44%

Draw
29%

Serpa
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

27.6%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

27.3%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oriental has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Serpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Serpa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oriental than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oriental that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Serpa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Oriental - Serpa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+2', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
84', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+2', 🟥,
90+3', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Oriental is Relegated to

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Oriental won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Oriental won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Serpa	4	1	3	0	6:4	2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Clube Oriental Lisboa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
12.04.26	Alcochetense - Oriental	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Oriental - Lagoa	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Oriental - Alverca B	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Elvas - Oriental	0:0 ✺
08.03.26	Oriental - Juventude de Évora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLLTT
- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
12.04.26	Serpa - Alverca B	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Elvas - Serpa	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Serpa - Juventude de Évora	0:3 ✺
15.03.26	Louletano - Serpa	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Serpa - Sintrense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
21.12.25	Serpa - Oriental	1:2
14.01.24	Oriental - Serpa	0:3
27.08.23	Serpa - Oriental	0:1

Oriental - Serpa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide