Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 25

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday


	Serpa		Alverca B

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.1	2.78
	2.44	3.35	2.49
	2.51	3.27	2.61	Watch
	2.4	3	2.63
	2.42	3.25	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.28)	3.19 ↓ (3.25)	2.61 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serpa
37.3%

Draw
28.2%

Alverca B
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

28.1%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

28.3%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Alverca B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca B than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Serpa - Alverca B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 3).

Serpa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alverca B is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Alverca B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Alverca B has had a series of home games.

Serpa could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Serpa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Serpa	4	1	3	0	6:4	2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Alverca B - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.76%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
04.04.26	Elvas - Serpa	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Serpa - Juventude de Évora	0:3 ✺
15.03.26	Louletano - Serpa	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Serpa - Sintrense	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Portimonense B - Serpa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLWT
- Alverca B
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
04.04.26	Alverca B - Alcochetense	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Alverca B - Portimonense B	4:0 ✺
22.03.26	Oriental - Alverca B	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Alverca B - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Alverca B - Elvas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.12.25	Alverca B - Serpa	2:1

Serpa - Alverca B: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide