The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Orsha 13.9%
Draw 18.1%
Naftan 68%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
11.2%
19.9%
68.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
10.6%
18.8%
72.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orsha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
Naftan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orsha than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naftan than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
Orsha - Naftan Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Volodkov A. (G) 7. Bobchenok N. 93. Bordukov P. 22. Kudinov E. 16. Pashkevich M. 88. Rudenok D. 82. Shalychev V. 5. Tarbyakov N. 19. Vekhtev N. 18. Volchenko N. 77. Zheleznikov G. (C)
13. Kharitonovich A. (G) 4. Abrorov S. 97. Chernyavskiy V. 22. Fezhenko V. 42. Jonathan J. 5. Lebedev A. (C) 50. Mafwenta G. 11. Pranovich I. 24. Seleznev I. 94. Voskoboynikov A. 9. Yakovlev V.
Substitutes
8. Berezun I. 69. Bulakhov S. 3. Bykov N. 14. Dambrovsky A. 80. Komarov Y. 52. Kravchenko R. (G) 17. Kulesh Y. 11. Stain D. 9. Tikhomirov D.
6. Adamovich K. 17. Aleksandrovich A. 88. Drabatovich A. 21. Kirkitski K. 8. Latykhov D. 25. Matvey S. 71. Naumovich A. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Yakovlev V. ⚽,
18', 0 - 2, Lebedev A. ⚽,
21', Jonathan J. 🟨,
37', Rudenok D. ↓, Stain D. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Seleznev I. ↓, Adamovich K. ↑,
46', Chernyavskiy V. ↓, Drabatovich A. ↑,
49', Jonathan J. 🟨,
57', Vekhtev N. 🟨,
61', Vekhtev N. ↓, Tikhomirov D. ↑,
70', Bobchenok N. 🟨,
79', Fezhenko V. ↓, Aleksandrovich A. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Pashkevich M. ⚽,
87', Kudinov E. ↓, Komarov Y. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Yakovlev V. (Own goal),
Extra Time (0 - 0)
91', Voskoboynikov A. ↓, Latykhov D. ↑,
116', Pranovich I. ↓, Matvey S. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Yakovlev V. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Tarbyakov N. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Latykhov D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Stain D. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Drabatovich A. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Pashkevich M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Adamovich K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Tikhomirov D. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Abrorov S. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orsha won 0.
The current form of both teams is below expectations.
Naftan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Naftan is the clear favorite.
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Orsha won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:21. (average 0.9:2.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Orsha won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:10. (average 0.5:2.5).