Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Round 3

Date: 8 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Francisco Rivera Escobar (Palmira)


	Orsomarso		Alianza Valledupar

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.4	1.83	Watch
	4	3.2	1.78
	4.05	3.2	1.82	Watch
	4.3	3.42	1.85	Watch
	4.4	3.1	1.8
	4.28	3.34	1.82	Watch
	3.29	3.12	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.09 ↓ (4.7)	3.25 ↑ (3.15)	1.88 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orsomarso
22.6%

Draw
28.4%

Alianza Valledupar
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.2%

28.7%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

28.1%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orsomarso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Orsomarso - Alianza Valledupar Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Orsomarso will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Alianza will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Orsomarso (3.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Orsomarso (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Alianza (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Aponza Cantonil S. A. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Ruiz A. ⚽,
44', 2 - 1, Caicedo C. S. L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', 2 - 2, Munoz J. ⚽,
90', 🟥,

Preview

Orsomarso has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alianza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Alianza is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Orsomarso won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Orsomarso won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orsomarso SC
Colombian Copa
03.06.25	Barranquilla - Orsomarso	2:0 ✺
30.05.25	Orsomarso - Envigado	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera B
18.05.25	Orsomarso - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:2 ✺
13.05.25	Deportes Quindío - Orsomarso	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Internacional de Palmira - Orsomarso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLTTT
- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Copa
04.06.25	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	4:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
25.05.25	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe	6:1 ✺
17.05.25	Boyacá Chicó - Alianza Valledupar	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Cali	2:0 ✺
02.05.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Alianza Valledupar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Copa
02.05.23	Alianza Valledupar - Orsomarso	3:1
06.04.23	Orsomarso - Alianza Valledupar	1:1

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