Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Montevarchi		Grosseto

	1	X	2
	4.85	3.15	1.7
	5.24	2.9	1.8	Watch
	4.4	3	1.75
	5.28	2.88	1.77
	4.75	3.6	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.9 ↓ (6.64)	3.11 ↓ (4.08)	1.73 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montevarchi
18.5%

Draw
29.2%

Grosseto
52.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.7%

22.3%

64%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

21.8%

65.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montevarchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Grosseto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grosseto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevarchi than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Montevarchi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grosseto than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grosseto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Montevarchi - Grosseto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Disanto F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
60', 0 - 2, Sabelli P. ⚽,
81', 0 - 3, Marzierli E. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montevarchi won 0.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, Grosseto is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Montevarchi won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Montevarchi won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Montevarchi	6	2	1	3	9:11	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montevarchi Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
11.01.26	San Donato Tavarnelle - Montevarchi	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Montevarchi - Foligno	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Montevarchi - Prato	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Ghiviborgo - Montevarchi	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Montevarchi - Siena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TTTWW
- FC Grosseto
Italian Serie D - Group E
11.01.26	Foligno - Grosseto	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Grosseto - Seravezza Pozzi	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Grosseto - Ghiviborgo	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	San Donato Tavarnelle - Grosseto	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Grosseto - Prato	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
20.09.25	Grosseto - Montevarchi	3:1
19.04.25	Grosseto - Montevarchi	1:1
08.12.24	Montevarchi - Grosseto	1:2
21.12.23	Grosseto - Montevarchi	2:2
Italian Serie C Group B
27.03.22	Montevarchi - Grosseto	1:1
21.11.21	Grosseto - Montevarchi	1:2
Italian Serie D - Group E
22.12.19	Montevarchi - Grosseto	1:1

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