Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 - Round 15

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday


	Oryol		Metallurg Lipetsk

	1	X	2
	4.08	3.42	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (2.87)	3.42 ↑ (3.2)	1.84 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oryol
22.7%

Draw
27%

Metallurg Lipetsk
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

28.4%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

28.1%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oryol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oryol's form might have worsened.

Metallurg Lipetsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Metallurg Lipetsk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oryol than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oryol, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metallurg Lipetsk than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Metallurg Lipetsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Oryol - Metallurg Lipetsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Semin D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
73', 0 - 2, Sazonov I. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oryol won 0.

Recent performances by Oryol have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Metallurg Lipetsk is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Metallurg Lipetsk is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Oryol won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Oryol won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Lipetsk	26	14	6	6	47:28	19	48
10	Oryol	26	8	5	13	29:44	-15	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Oryol
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
27.06.26	Zenit Penza - Oryol	3:1 ✺
20.06.26	Oryol - Arsenal 2 Tula	4:1 ✺
13.06.26	Strogino Moskva - Oryol	2:3 ✺
06.06.26	Oryol - SKA Khabarovsk 2	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Shumbrat Saransk - Oryol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWTL
- FC Metallurg Lipetsk
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
27.06.26	Metallurg Lipetsk - Rodina Moscow 3	3:2 ✺
20.06.26	Saturn Ramenskoye - Metallurg Lipetsk	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Zenit Penza - Metallurg Lipetsk	2:3 ✺
06.06.26	Metallurg Lipetsk - Arsenal 2 Tula	3:1 ✺
30.05.26	Strogino Moskva - Metallurg Lipetsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
13.09.25	Oryol - Metallurg Lipetsk	0:0
24.05.25	Metallurg Lipetsk - Oryol	2:0
Russian PFL Center
17.09.16	Oryol - Metallurg Lipetsk	0:1
23.04.16	Metallurg Lipetsk - Oryol	0:0
07.09.15	Oryol - Metallurg Lipetsk	0:0
23.10.14	Metallurg Lipetsk - Oryol	1:0
25.07.14	Oryol - Metallurg Lipetsk	0:0

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