Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 - Round 24

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday


	Oryol		Shumbrat Saransk

	1	X	2
	4.90	4.75	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.9 ↑ (4.69)	4.75 ↓ (5.1)	1.44 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 10.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oryol
18.4%

Draw
19%

Shumbrat Saransk
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

18%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

17.6%

60.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oryol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Shumbrat Saransk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oryol than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shumbrat Saransk than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Oryol - Shumbrat Saransk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 0 - 1, Lomuchin A. (Own goal),
87', 0 - 2, Abrasimov D. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 7).

Oryol is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Shumbrat has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Oryol has had a series of away games.

In this match, Shumbrat is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Oryol won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	FK Shumbrat Saransk	26	13	5	8	46:35	11	44
10	Oryol	26	8	5	13	29:44	-15	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Oryol
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
12.09.26	Spartak Tambov - Oryol	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Avangard Kursk - Oryol	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Volna Kovernino - Oryol	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Oryol - Ryazan	0:2 ✺
15.08.26	Rotor 2 - Oryol	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLT
- FK Shumbrat Saransk
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
12.09.26	Shumbrat Saransk - Rodina Moscow 3	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Metallurg Lipetsk - Shumbrat Saransk	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Shumbrat Saransk - Zenit Penza	1:3 ✺
23.08.26	Arsenal 2 Tula - Shumbrat Saransk	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Shumbrat Saransk - Strogino Moskva	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
31.05.26	Shumbrat Saransk - Oryol	2:0

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