Match Info

J3 League - Promotion - Play Offs - Final

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Osaka		Tegevajaro Miyazaki

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.05	3.6
				Watch
	2.1	2.95	3.98
	1.85	3.27	4.48	Watch
	2.05	2.75	3.7
	2.02	2.89	3.84	Watch
	1.93	2.83	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 (1.98)	2.96 ↓ (3.05)	3.99 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osaka
46.2%

Draw
30.9%

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

29.5%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

27.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki Predictions

Users Predictions: Osaka will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Osaka will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yamamoto T. (G) 37. Tsutsumi S. 3. Kawakami R. 23. Akiyama T. 16. Hashimoto R. 25. Takei S. 27. Sawazaki R. 19. Masuda S. 10. Kubo R. 9. Shimada T. 11. Tone R.	31. Okamoto M. (G) 24. Matsumoto Y. 33. Kuroki K. 28. Manabe H. 39. Shimokawa Y. 20. Ano M. 50. Yasuda K. 47. Okumura K. 10. Inoue R. 18. Yoshizawa S. 58. Take H.
Substitutes
7. Kitsui T. 13. Mima K. 5. Minakuchi Y. 39. Mochizuki S. 51. Nishimura M. 41. Nose R. 24. Sato R. 31. Sugawara H. (G) 6. Tachino S.	40. Ando R. 35. Egawa G. 34. Kawai T. 32. Lee Chung-won (G) 42. Matsumoto K. 6. Okuma K. 8. Rikiyasu S. 41. Sakai S. 45. Tanaka S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
29', 0 - 1, Hashimoto R. (Own goal),
40', Tsutsumi S. 🟨,
42', 0 - 2, Yoshizawa S. ⚽, Yasuda K. (A),
45', Masuda S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Masuda S. ↓, Nishimura M. ↑,
46', Tone R. ↓, Nose R. ↑,
46', Yoshizawa S. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,
63', 0 - 3, Take H. ⚽,
66', Kubo R. ↓, Mochizuki S. ↑,
66', Tsutsumi S. ↓, Mima K. ↑,
69', Shimada T. 🟨,
70', 0 - 4, Ano M. ⚽, Matsumoto K. (A),
73', Hashimoto R. ↓, Tachino S. ↑,
76', Yasuda K. 🟨,
77', Inoue R. ↓, Rikiyasu S. ↑,
79', Ano M. ↓, Sakai S. ↑,
89', Take H. ↓, Egawa G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osaka won 1.

Osaka has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Osaka could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Osaka won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Osaka won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
07.12.25	Osaka - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Gifu - Osaka	2:3 ✺
24.11.25	Osaka - Kochi United	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	1:1 ✺
10.11.25	Osaka - Nagano Parceiro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWTW
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J3 League
07.12.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Kagoshima United	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Fukushima United - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Gifu	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Nagano Parceiro - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
12.07.25	Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:0
14.06.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Osaka	0:0
27.10.24	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Osaka	1:0
29.06.24	Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	4:1
18.11.23	Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:1
11.03.23	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Osaka	0:1

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