Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 38

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Tajonar Facilities Stadium (Pamplona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Osasuna B		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.25
	1.98	3	3.4
	2.12	3.05	3.4
	2.11	2.97	3.32
	2.15	3.08	3.49	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.3
	2.04	3.2	3.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.09)	3.04 ↓ (3.45)	3.36 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna B
43.5%

Draw
29.6%

Mérida AD
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

26.9%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

26.8%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Osasuna B - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Rafa (G) 3. Jimenez A. 5. Santos U. 15. Efremov A. 22. Larrion A. 12. Lucero R. 16. Auria M. 20. Perez B. 8. Yoldi A. 19. Bonel A. 7. Lumbreras C. (C)	13. Cacharron P. (G) 20. Jacobo R. 5. Dominguez J. 4. Pareja L. 23. Verges E. 21. Beneit R. (C) 8. Solar M. 18. Dibrani B. 11. Areso J. 9. Hallsson S. 7. Chiqui
Substitutes
30. Anso M. 33. Bermejo M. 4. Espejo D. 26. Garin X. 9. Gonzalez D. 36. Kepa 11. Pedroarena M. 21. Ruiz R. C. 23. Serrano M.	30. Carvajal D. 1. Csenterics A. (G) 14. El Ftouhi S. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 28. Martinez M. 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe 22. Rivas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Hallsson S. ⚽,
36', 🟨,
39', 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Bonel A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 1 - 2, Hallsson S. ⚽,
52', 🟨,
52', 🟨,
59', 🟨,
62', Larrion A. ↓, Anso M. ↑,
63', Efremov A. ↓, Kepa ↑,
63', Perez B. ↓, Garin X. ↑,
63', Yoldi A. ↓, Pedroarena M. ↑,
69', Chiqui ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
69', Bonel A. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
74', Areso J. 🟨,
81', Hallsson S. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
90+6', El Ftouhi S. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 11).

Osasuna B is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mérida AD's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Osasuna B might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Osasuna B won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Ferrol - Osasuna B	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Osasuna B - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Celta de Vigo B - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Osasuna B - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Zamora - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 TWWWL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Mérida AD - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Barakaldo - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Mérida AD - Lugo	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Arenteiro - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.01.26	Mérida AD - Osasuna B	1:0

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