Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 35

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Romano Jose Fouto (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Mérida AD		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	2.8
	2.2	3.2	2.8
	2.02	3.2	3.5
	2.07	3.2	3.39
	2.08	3.36	3.45	Watch
	2.15	3.1	2.8
	2.03	3.18	3.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.98)	3.23 ↓ (3.26)	3.17 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
43.2%

Draw
28.1%

Lugo
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.1%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Mérida AD - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 20. Jacobo R. 4. Pareja L. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 21. Beneit R. (C) 17. Herranz Corral V. 8. Solar M. 16. Capitas M. 14. El Ftouhi S. 7. Chiqui	1. Martinez M. (C) 2. Rodriguez Y. 16. Jose Amo 3. Garriz I. 22. Samanes S. 8. Balboa A. 5. Gallar A. 12. Perera A. 31. Alcalde A. 15. Reniero N. 23. Junior L.
Substitutes
13. Cacharron P. (G) 18. Dibrani B. 10. Doncel C. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 9. Hallsson S. 28. Martinez M. 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe 22. Rivas M.	10. Alba T. 26. Balcedo T. 27. Buide M. 9. Celorio N. 18. Costa G. 13. Piedra I. (G) 14. Presa K. 25. Sanchez B. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P. 19. Unzueta I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', El Ftouhi S. 🟨,
7', 0 - 1, Reniero N. ⚽,
19', Jacobo R. 🟨,
20', Jose Amo 🟨,
32', Gallar A. 🟨,
34', 0 - 2, Gallar A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Samanes S. 🟨,
63', Lancho J. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
63', Capitas M. ↓, Doncel C. ↑,
63', El Ftouhi S. ↓, Hallsson S. ↑,
67', Gallar A. ↓, Presa K. ↑,
72', Rodriguez Y. 🟨,
74', Solar M. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Doncel C. 🟨,
82', Balboa A. ↓, Celorio N. ↑,
82', Alcalde A. ↓, Unzueta I. ↑,
84', Herranz Corral V. ↓, Dibrani B. ↑,
90+9', Junior L. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 12).

Recent performances by Mérida AD have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lugo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mérida AD could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mérida AD won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.04.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Arenteiro - Mérida AD	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Mérida AD - Tenerife	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	4:1 ✺
28.03.26	Mérida AD - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTLW
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.04.26	Barakaldo - Lugo	3:0 ✺
19.04.26	Lugo - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Ourense CF - Lugo	4:2 ✺
05.04.26	Lugo - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Cacereño - Lugo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.01.26	Lugo - Mérida AD	1:0

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