Match Info

Super League - Championship Group - Round 3

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Toumba Stadium (Thessaloniki)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	PAOK		Olympiacos Piraeus

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.2	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.3
	3.25	3.1	2.33	Watch
	2.85	3.01	2.84
	3.09	3.05	2.43	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.4
	3.33	2.9	2.37	Watch
	2.52	3.1	2.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.57)	3.03 ↓ (3.05)	2.46 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

PAOK
30.7%

Draw
31%

Olympiacos Piraeus
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

30.1%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

31.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

PAOK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that PAOK's form might have worsened.

Olympiacos Piraeus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PAOK than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for PAOK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympiacos Piraeus than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olympiacos Piraeus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	41.7%	33.3%

PAOK - Olympiacos Piraeus Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. PAOK will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Olympiacos will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Olympiacos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Olympiacos (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Olympiacos (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pavlenka J. (G) 3. Kenny J. 16. Kedziora T. 5. Michailidis G. 21. Baba A. R. 20. Zafeiris C. 8. Meite S. 19. Jeremejeff A. 65. Konstantelias G. 11. Taison 14. Zivkovic A. (C)	88. Tzolakis K. (G) 20. Costinha 45. Retsos P. (C) 5. Pirola L. 3. Ortega F. 32. Hezze S. 14. Garcia D. 23. Rodinei 22. Chiquinho 10. Martins G. 9. El Kaabi A.
Substitutes
97. Bataoulas D. 22. Bianco A. 18. Ivanusec L. 41. Monastirlis D. (G) 56. Mythou A. 27. Ozdoev M. 10. Pelkas D. 35. Sanchez J. 23. Sastre J. 32. Taylor G. 99. Tsiftsis A. (G) 4. Vogliacco A.	17. Andre Luiz 4. Biancone G. 6. Kalogeropoulos A. 61. Kouraklis G. (G) 96. Mouzakitis C. 8. Nascimento D. 1. Paschalakis A. (G) 56. Podence D. 16. Scipioni L. 99. Taremi M. 21. Vezo R. 97. Yazici Y.
Coaches
Lucescu R.	Mendilibar J. L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Jeremejeff A. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, El Kaabi A. ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
43', Ortega F. 🟨,
45', Zafeiris C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 2 - 1, Zivkovic A. ⚽, Konstantelias G. (A),
65', 3 - 1, Jeremejeff A. ⚽, Zivkovic A. (A),
71', Garcia D. ↓, Mouzakitis C. ↑,
71', Rodinei ↓, Podence D. ↑,
77', Taison ↓, Pelkas D. ↑,
77', Meite S. ↓, Ozdoev M. ↑,
81', Martins G. ↓, Andre Luiz ↑,
87', Jeremejeff A. ↓, Mythou A. ↑,
87', Konstantelias G. ↓, Ivanusec L. ↑,
90', Chiquinho ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
90', Retsos P. ↓, Biancone G. ↑,
90+2', Zafeiris C. ↓, Bianco A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PAOK won 3.

PAOK has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Olympiacos has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

PAOK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in PAOK: Despodov K. (Muscle Injury) Giakoumakis G. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, PAOK won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:29. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, PAOK won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

Olympiacos Piraeus: 24.03% PAOK: 13.01%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	PAOK	5	4	0	1	12:5	7	12
5	Olympiacos Piraeus	5	3	1	1	4:2	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Olympiacos Piraeus - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.05%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- PAOK FC
Greek Cup
25.04.26	PAOK - OFI	2:3 ET ✺
Greek Super League
19.04.26	AEK Athens - PAOK	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	PAOK - Panathinaikos	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Volos - PAOK	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	PAOK - Levadiakos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLW
- FC Olympiacos Piraeus
Greek Super League
19.04.26	Panathinaikos - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEL Larissa	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	OFI - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:3 ✺
08.03.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
08.03.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	0:0
Greek Cup
14.01.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	0:2
Greek Super League
05.10.25	PAOK - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:1
04.05.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	4:2
06.04.25	PAOK - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:1
23.02.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	2:1
10.11.24	PAOK - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:3

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