Match Info

Super League - Championship Group - Round 1

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium (Piraeus)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ANT1 Pacific
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Usa	ANT1 Satellite


	Olympiacos Piraeus		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.78	3.5	4.7	Watch
	1.73	3.58	5.4
	1.77	3.43	4.84	Watch
	1.7	3.3	4.8
	1.69	3.52	5.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.19)	3.49 ↑ (3.18)	5.02 ↑ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympiacos Piraeus
54.4%

Draw
26.9%

AEK Athens
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympiacos Piraeus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympiacos Piraeus's performance.

AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AEK Athens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympiacos Piraeus than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympiacos Piraeus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Athens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65%	30%	5%

Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Olympiacos will win (votes: 13 - 65%). AEK will win (votes: 1 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Olympiacos: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Olympiacos (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Tzolakis K. (G) 23. Rodinei 45. Retsos P. (C) 5. Pirola L. 70. Onyemaechi B. 32. Hezze S. 14. Garcia D. 10. Martins G. 99. Taremi M. 56. Podence D. 9. El Kaabi A.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. (C) 44. Relvas F. 29. Penrice J. 13. Pineda O. 18. Marin R. 11. Koita A. 37. Pereyra R. 25. Varga B. 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
4. Biancone G. 22. Chiquinho 19. Clayton 20. Costinha 6. Kalogeropoulos A. 67. Liatsikouras A. 96. Mouzakitis C. 8. Nascimento D. 1. Paschalakis A. (G) 16. Scipioni L. 21. Vezo R. 97. Yazici Y.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 8. Gacinovic M. 15. Georgiev M. 4. Grujic M. 10. Joao Mario 7. Kutesa D. 23. Ljubicic R. 20. Mantalos P. 21. Vida D. 90. Zini
Coaches
Mendilibar J. L.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Koita A. ⚽,
31', Pereyra R. 🟨,
34', Garcia D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Garcia D. ↓, Mouzakitis C. ↑,
59', Podence D. ↓, Chiquinho ↑,
64', Pereyra R. ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
64', Jovic L. ↓, Gacinovic M. ↑,
67', Penrice J. 🟨,
71', Taremi M. ↓, Clayton ↑,
71', Martins G. ↓, Yazici Y. ↑,
80', Koita A. ↓, Joao Mario ↑,
80', Varga B. ↓, Zini ↑,
83', Hezze S. ↓, Nascimento D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Olympiacos won 3.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Olympiacos is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Olympiacos won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:19. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Olympiacos won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:8. (average 2:0.8).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

Olympiacos Piraeus: 22.58%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	AEK Athens	6	4	2	0	16:3	13	14
5	Olympiacos Piraeus	5	3	1	1	4:2	2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Olympiacos Piraeus
Greek Super League
22.03.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEL Larissa	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	OFI - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:3 ✺
08.03.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Panserraikos - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWTWT
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
22.03.26	AEK Athens - AE Kifisia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	AEK Athens - Celje	0:2 ✺
Greek Super League
15.03.26	Atromitos Athens - AEK Athens	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Celje - AEK Athens	0:4 ✺
Greek Super League
07.03.26	AEK Athens - AEL Larissa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
01.02.26	AEK Athens - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:1
26.10.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens	2:0
27.04.25	AEK Athens - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:2
13.04.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens	1:0
Greek Cup
02.04.25	AEK Athens - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:0
Greek Super League
02.03.25	AEK Athens - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:1
Greek Cup
26.02.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - AEK Athens	6:0

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