The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Paços de Ferreira 38%
Draw 29.7%
Arouca 32.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.6%
29.4%
29.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.3%
32.1%
27.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+6.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paços de Ferreira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
38.5%
38.5%
23.1%
Paços de Ferreira - Arouca Predictions
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 10 - 38.5%). Arouca will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 38.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Paços de Ferreira: 19.8% – 57.2%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 13).
Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 18 (30.75%), has project points - 28, has currently - 1, has a good chance of relegated (57%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Arouca has the most likely position - 16 (12.06%), has project points - 35, has currently - 8, has a chance of relegated (26%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has quality40, importance44, match rating42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 4.
Paços de Ferreira has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Arouca is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Paços de Ferreira could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Paços de Ferreira will have a small advantage in this match.
There will not play in Paços de Ferreira: Ilori T.
(Injury)
Silva J.
(Injury)
There will not play in Arouca: Velazquez S.
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Paços de Ferreira: Ganchas P.
(Injury)
Jordi
(Injury)
Last 14 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 20-11.
Including matches at home between the teams Paços de Ferreira won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-4.
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