Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 12

Date: 1 December 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Portugal	Sport TV1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Arouca		Braga

	1	X	2
	7.5	4	1.42	Watch
	6.4	4.45	1.46	Watch
	6.93	4.55	1.48
	5.33	4.10	1.60	Watch
	6.5	4.2	1.44
	7.28	4.51	1.49	Watch
	6.66	4.33	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.66 ↑ (5.33)	4.31 ↑ (4.1)	1.48 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
14.2%

Draw
21.9%

Braga
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.8%

23.1%

59.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

22.6%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.2%	6.9%	75.9%

Arouca - Braga Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Braga will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 62.1% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Arouca (2.06) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Braga will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Braga (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
58. Mantl N. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio 3. Fontan J. 5. Popovic B. 16. Sola A. 21. Fukui T. 8. Simao D. (C) 78. Alex Pinto 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 23. Nandin D.	1. Hornicek L. (G) 14. Lagerbielke G. 4. Niakate S. 6. Vitor Carvalho 2. Gomez V. 27. Grillitsch F. 29. Gorby 20. Dorgeles M. 18. Victor P. 9. El Ouazzani A. 21. Horta R. (C)
Substitutes
17. Barbero I. 44. Dante A. 66. Fayed O. 10. Gozalbez P. 89. Pedro Santos 11. Puche 19. Trezza A. 1. Valido J. (G) 22. van Ee E.	26. Arrey-Mbi B. 36. Bellaarouch A. (G) 17. Gabriel Moscardo 5. Lelo L. 77. Martinez G. 8. Moutinho J. 39. Navarro F. 15. Oliveira P. 50. Rodrigues D.
Coaches
Seabra V.	Vicens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
13', Fontan J. 🟨,
15', Fontan J. 🟨,
20', Sola A. ↓, Fayed O. ↑,
25', Alex Pinto 🟨,
26', Horta R. (Pen),
26', 0 - 1, Mantl N. (Own goal),
31', 0 - 2, Horta R. ⚽, Gomez V. (A),
45+2', 0 - 3, Alex Pinto (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Simao D. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
46', Lee H. ↓, Puche ↑,
46', Alex Pinto ↓, Dante A. ↑,
60', Gorby ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
60', Gomez V. ↓, Lelo L. ↑,
60', Horta R. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
71', 0 - 4, Lagerbielke G. ⚽, Rodrigues D. (A),
72', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,
73', Nandin D. ↓, Trezza A. ↑,
78', Grillitsch F. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
84', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1.

Recent form of Arouca has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Braga has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Arouca has had a series of away games.

In this match, Braga is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Knee Injury) Rocha M. (Injury)

There will not play in Braga: Noro J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Zalazar R. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 12:36. (average 0.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:17. (average 0.4:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Fafe - Arouca	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.11.25	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:3 ✺
02.11.25	Arouca - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Benfica - Arouca	5:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Portimonense - Arouca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLLW
- SC Braga
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Glasgow Rangers - Braga	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Braga - Nacional	4:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Braga - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Braga - Genk	3:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.11.25	Porto - Braga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
29.03.25	Braga - Arouca	2:1
03.11.24	Arouca - Braga	1:2
06.04.24	Braga - Arouca	0:3
12.11.23	Arouca - Braga	0:1
19.02.23	Braga - Arouca	2:0
28.08.22	Arouca - Braga	0:6
Club Friendly
12.07.22	Braga - Arouca	3:2

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