Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 22

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV


	Casa Pia		Arouca

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.2	2.35	Watch
	2.92	3.05	2.48	Watch
	3.08	3.22	2.52
	2.93	3.14	2.54	Watch
	2.9	3	2.45
	3.02	3.34	2.5	Watch
	3	3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.74)	3.14 ↑ (3.05)	2.48 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
31.9%

Draw
30.1%

Arouca
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

30.8%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

31.1%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	9.1%	54.5%

Casa Pia - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Arouca will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sequeira P. (G) 43. Sousa D. 4. Goulart J. 3. Kaly 72. Larrazabal G. 80. Ofori L. 8. Brito R. 5. Conte A. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano (C) 13. Osundina K.	12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 25. Kuipers B. 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.
Substitutes
18. Geraldes A. 27. Kaique Rocha 95. Mandic I. (G) 11. Marques J. 99. Mendes C. 24. Mohamed I. 21. Morais T. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 75. Rosas P.	44. Dante A. 10. Gozalbez P. 24. Mansilla B. 6. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 20. Santiago Perez J. 1. Valido J. (G)
Coaches
Pacheco A.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
6', Sanchez J. 🟨,
10', Sousa D. 🟨,
11', 0 - 1, Barbero I. ⚽, Tiago Esgaio (A),
21', 1 - 1, Brito R. ⚽, Conte A. (A),
25', 2 - 1, Cassiano ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
37', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
37', 2 - 2, Conte A. (Own goal),
45', 3 - 2, Cassiano (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Osundina K. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
56', Kaly 🟨,
67', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
67', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
73', Cassiano 🟨,
79', De Arruabarrena I. 🟨,
83', Marques J. 🟨,
84', Cassiano ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
84', Brito R. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
84', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,
84', van Ee E. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
84', Kuipers B. ↓, Puche ↑,
90+3', Livolant J. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
08.02.26	Nacional - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
02.02.26	Casa Pia - Porto	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Casa Pia - AVS	3:3 ✺
16.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.3 TWTLL
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
07.02.26	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Rio Ave - Arouca	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	AVS - Arouca	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2
04.05.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:0
20.12.24	Casa Pia - Arouca	3:1
18.02.24	Casa Pia - Arouca	1:0
17.09.23	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:1
25.02.23	Arouca - Casa Pia	2:0
04.09.22	Casa Pia - Arouca	0:0

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