Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Portugal	Sport TV4
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 14


	Arouca		Boavista

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.7	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.4
	2	3.6	3.5	Watch
	2.02	3.76	3.66
	1.95	3.7	3.75	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.25	Watch
	1.97	3.82	3.82	Watch
	2	3.6	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.81)	3.6 ↓ (3.88)	3.57 ↓ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
47.4%

Draw
26.2%

Boavista
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

24.5%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

24.1%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Boavista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

Arouca - Boavista Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Boavista will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.5 - Boavista (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arouca will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 3 - 75%). Boavista (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valido J. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 3. Fontan J. 73. Lamba C. 26. Weverson 21. Fukui T. 89. Pedro Santos 11. Puche 10. Jason (C) 19. Trezza A. 39. Araujo H.	31. Vaclik T. (G) 7. Agra S. 26. Abascal R. 13. Fogning S. 20. Ferreira F. 8. van Ginkel M. 24. Perez S. (C) 21. Diaby A. 10. Reisinho M. 16. Silva J. 9. Bozenik R.
Substitutes
27. Dante A. 31. Loum M. 24. Mansilla B. 23. Nandin D. 13. Popovic B. 4. Rocha M. 30. Vinarcik J. (G) 50. Yalcin G.	11. Ariyibi G. 71. Barros J. 2. Camara I. 1. Cesar (G) 25. Dabo A. 15. Gomes P. 14. Kone M. 5. Lystsov V. 19. Vitoria S.
Coaches
Seabra V.	Baxter S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Puche ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, Trezza A. ⚽,
22', 2 - 1, Bozenik R. ⚽, Diaby A. (A),
25', 3 - 1, Araujo H. ⚽, Weverson (A),
34', Silva J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Puche 🟨,
67', Agra S. ↓, Gomes P. ↑,
73', Araujo H. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
73', Puche ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
74', 🟨,
76', Lamba C. ↓, Rocha M. ↑,
76', Ferreira F. ↓, Kone M. ↑,
83', Weverson ↓, Dante A. ↑,
83', Pedro Santos ↓, Loum M. ↑,
84', Perez S. ↓, Lystsov V. ↑,
86', Diaby A. ↓, Vitoria S. ↑,
90+4', 4 - 1, Nandin D. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Arouca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Arouca: Galovic N. (Knee Injury) Gozalbez P. (Inactive) Rocha M. (Inactive) Simao D. (Inactive) Sylla M. (Yellow Cards) Tiago Esgaio (Injury)

There will not play in Boavista: Joao Goncalves (Knee Injury) Kakay O. (Red Card) Kurzawa L. (Inactive) Llorente D. (Inactive) Machado T. (Inactive) Ribeiro M. (Knee Injury) Vukotic I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Boavista: Silva T. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:8. (average 1.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
10.05.25	Gil Vicente - Arouca	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
26.04.25	Santa Clara - Arouca	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Benfica - Arouca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TTLWT
- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
11.05.25	Boavista - Porto	1:2 ✺
05.05.25	AVS - Boavista	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Boavista - Sporting Lisbon	0:5 ✺
18.04.25	Farense - Boavista	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Boavista - Nacional	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.01.25	Boavista - Arouca	1:3
14.04.24	Arouca - Boavista	2:1
03.12.23	Boavista - Arouca	0:4
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Arouca - Boavista	3:2 penalties
Liga Portugal
03.03.23	Boavista - Arouca	0:0
11.09.22	Arouca - Boavista	1:2
09.04.22	Boavista - Arouca	1:0

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