Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 21

Date: 10 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Melo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sporting TV, Sport TV1


	Paços de Ferreira		Sporting Lisbon B

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.1
	3.15	3.15	2.22
	3.38	3.21	2.27
	3.26	3.31	2.2	Watch
	3.25	2.9	2.15
	3.5	3.22	2.11	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.99)	3.14 ↓ (3.33)	2.18 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
28.2%

Draw
29.4%

Sporting Lisbon B
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

28%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

25.9%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Sporting Lisbon B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paços de Ferreira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Paços de Ferreira - Sporting Lisbon B Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Sporting B will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting B: 55.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting B (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Paços de Ferreira (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paços de Ferreira (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Sporting B (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafa (G) 22. Mota 23. Ferreira T. (C) 4. Kauan 5. Sousa A. 8. Costa D. 88. Francisco Ramos 26. Cunha N. 90. Lumungo R. 47. da Silva Moreira I. A. 13. Pinto J.	41. Diego Callai (G) 50. Dias R. 43. Muniz J. 54. Bruno Ramos 45. Moreira D. (C) 60. Rayan Lucas 96. Justo S. 78. Couto M. 87. Cardoso P. 58. Goncalves F. 90. Nel R.
Substitutes
21. Anilson 15. Dias L. 3. Diegao 7. Diego Fernandes 14. Duarte R. 12. Jeimes (G) 77. Rafael 36. Silva V. 9. Victor J.	70. Blopa S. 68. Costa D. 73. Felicissimo E. 88. Mendonca M. 74. Pires G. (G) 49. Romulus 82. Silva G. 95. Taibo Dominguez L. 40. Tanlongo M.
Coaches
Braga N.	Joao Giao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
4', Moreira D. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Nel R. ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, Goncalves F. ⚽,
34', Ferreira T. 🟨,
37', Couto M. 🟨,
41', Goncalves F. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 3, Dias R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', da Silva Moreira I. A. ↓, Diego Fernandes ↑,
46', Cunha N. ↓, Dias L. ↑,
46', Sousa A. ↓, Victor J. ↑,
49', Rayan Lucas 🟨,
53', Dias R. 🟨,
54', Diego Callai 🟨,
58', Rayan Lucas ↓, Felicissimo E. ↑,
58', Dias R. ↓, Blopa S. ↑,
62', Muniz J. ↓, Taibo Dominguez L. ↑,
68', Diego Fernandes 🟨,
70', Pinto J. ↓, Silva V. ↑,
74', Bruno Ramos ↓, Romulus ↑,
74', Goncalves F. ↓, Mendonca M. ↑,
82', Dias L. 🟨,
84', Costa D. ↓, Duarte R. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: )).

Paços de Ferreira is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sporting B has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sporting B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Paços de Ferreira won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Sporting CP B	6	4	0	2	8:6	2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Sporting Lisbon B - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.76%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
23.01.26	Paços de Ferreira - Académico de Viseu	2:1 ✺
15.01.26	Vizela - Paços de Ferreira	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira	1:2 ✺
28.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Feirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.4 WLWTW
- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 2
01.02.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
26.01.26	Leiria - Sporting Lisbon B	3:1 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
20.01.26	Manchester United U21 - Sporting Lisbon B	3:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
19.01.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Torreense	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Porto B - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
31.08.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Paços de Ferreira	3:0

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