Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 16

Date: 28 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Paços de Ferreira		Farense

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.3	1.83	Watch
	3.55	3.25	2.02
	3.54	3.3	2.09	Watch
	3.6	3.1	1.95
	3.95	3.43	1.9	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (3.53)	3.27 ↓ (3.29)	1.97 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
25.2%

Draw
28.1%

Farense
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

28.4%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

27.8%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Paços de Ferreira - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Farense will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Paços de Ferreira (4.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paços de Ferreira (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Farense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafa (G) 21. Anilson 23. Ferreira T. (C) 77. Rafael 5. Sousa A. 26. Cunha N. 88. Francisco Ramos 13. Pinto J. 36. Silva V. 9. Victor J. 30. Costinha	99. Araujo B. (G) 26. Ruben 5. Romero F. 34. Herrero T. 3. D'Agrella L. 88. Teixeira R. 80. Ndiaye A. 10. Almeida B. 6. Derick Poloni 25. Dorregaray D. 7. Costa R. (C)
Substitutes
2. Cardoso G. 38. Coelho G. 3. Diegao 7. Diego Fernandes 12. Jeimes (G) 4. Kauan 22. Mota 19. Nito 39. Pereira R.	17. Candeias A. 43. Dario Miranda 2. Delgado F. 16. Geovanny 21. Jaiminho 14. Poveda D. 90. Sangare B. 20. Semedo Y. 30. Tannander J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Francisco Ramos 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Derick Poloni 🟨,
51', D'Agrella L. 🟨,
60', Almeida B. ↓, Candeias A. ↑,
66', Anilson ↓, Mota ↑,
72', Teixeira R. ↓, Semedo Y. ↑,
72', Dorregaray D. ↓, Dario Miranda ↑,
73', Francisco Ramos ↓, Nito ↑,
73', Pinto J. ↓, Diegao ↑,
84', Silva V. ↓, Diego Fernandes ↑,
90', Derick Poloni ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
90', Ndiaye A. ↓, Geovanny ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 10).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Farense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Farense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Paços de Ferreira won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paços de Ferreira won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
20.12.25	Feirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Lusitânia	1:5 ✺
07.12.25	Chaves - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
01.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLLTL
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.25	Farense - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Farense - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.12.25	Académico de Viseu - Farense	3:0 ✺
08.12.25	Farense - Vizela	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Farense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
20.04.21	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	0:2
27.12.20	Farense - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
24.02.19	Farense - Paços de Ferreira	1:2
06.10.18	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	1:0

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