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Current Win Probability
Pachuca 54.1%
Draw 21.5%
Toluca 24.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.6%
25.5%
33.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.3%
27.2%
31.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pachuca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pachuca's performance.
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toluca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (-10.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pachuca that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+7.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toluca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Pachuca - Toluca Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Barreras E. (G) 2. Robles K. 17. Caicedo K. 8. Minota Y. 5. Ibarra B. 25. Aline Gomes 6. Nieto K. 16. Sanchez Stickel E. R. 10. Nicosia N. 30. Ihezuo C. 9. Corral V. (C)
12. Martinez V. (G) 11. Guatemala D. 2. Martinez K. 16. Fernandez L. 24. Veje K. 17. Jakobsson S. 22. Vazquez S. 23. Diaz B. 14. Blackwood D. 10. Cuevas B. (C) 9. Le Sommer E.
Substitutes
13. Eudimilla 23. Flores D. 26. Garcia P. 79. Gomez A. 18. Gonzalez M. 22. Lopes C. (G) 7. Orejel J. 35. Valdez Hernandez J. 21. Vance M. 11. Veloz A.
8. Fernandez K. 5. Franco Y. 28. Gonzalez Diaz Barreiro S. 13. Lopez V. 1. Lozoya C. (G) 26. Munoz I. 29. Pavi M. 15. Ramirez M. 25. Robert F.
Coaches
Olsin A.
Toril A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Vazquez S. ⚽,
22', Guatemala D. 🟨,
45+3', Le Sommer E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 1 - 1, Sanchez Stickel E. R. ⚽,
53', 1 - 2, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
56', Jakobsson S. ↓, Robert F. ↑,
61', Corral V. ↓, Veloz A. ↑,
66', Guatemala D. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
66', Diaz B. ↓, Franco Y. ↑,
70', Martinez V. 🟥,
74', Vazquez S. ↓, Lozoya C. ↑,
77', Aline Gomes 🟨,
78', Ibarra B. ↓, Flores D. ↑,
79', Aline Gomes ↓, Vance M. ↑,
Preview
A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 6th and 4th in the Promotion - Liga MX Women Apertura - Playoffs).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 2.
Recent results have been tough for Pachuca (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Toluca has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Toluca may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Pachuca is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Pachuca has recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 47:27 (averaging 2.4:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Pachuca against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 26:14 goals (averaging 2.6:1.4 per game).
Mexico
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Barreras E. (G) 
Caicedo K. 
Aline Gomes 
Nicosia N. 
Ihezuo C. 
Veje K. 
Jakobsson S. 
Blackwood D. 
Le Sommer E. 
Vance M. 
Toril A. 
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