Match Info

ESTONIA: Esiliiga - Round 33

Date: 15 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide)


	Paide U21		Tallinna Kalev U21

	1	X	2
	2.7	4.33	1.93
	3	4.5	1.83	Watch
	2.78	4.8	1.83
	2.92	5.06	1.83
	2.75	4	2
	2.97	4.25	1.9
	3	4.5	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.77)	4.49 ↑ (4.05)	1.88 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide U21
31.5%

Draw
20.2%

Tallinna Kalev U21
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

22.5%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

21.5%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Tallinna Kalev U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide U21 than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tallinna Kalev U21 than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tallinna Kalev U21, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Paide U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
70. Isakar R. (G) 26. Luts R. 46. Reivik K. 4. Kane R. 37. Kanne K. 25. Gueye M. 32. Kiik K. 7. Riiberg H. (C) 22. Soo S. 9. Piht K. 24. Suso M.	1. Lepp S. (G) 16. Kirt A. 3. Kajari E. 23. Tsernjakov J. 2. Kollo A. 20. Svedovski A. 17. Smirnov R. 14. Sal-Al-Saller D. 77. Nigula R. 9. Ilves R. 8. Laasner K. (C)
Substitutes
64. Aasma S. 21. Einer M. 71. Kalla K. 48. Karp K. 63. Kookmaa L. 91. Lipson R.	26. Ernits R. 13. Ilves R. (G) 10. Kippar K. 27. Kukk C. 11. Palu R. 19. Poder J. 15. Siitam M.J. 12. Surogin A. 7. Talu R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
9', 0 - 1, Nigula R. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Piht K. ⚽,
38', 1 - 2, Smirnov R. ⚽,
39', 1 - 3, Ilves R. ⚽,
41', 1 - 4, Svedovski A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
54', 1 - 5, Svedovski A. ⚽,
58', 🟨,
60', 1 - 6, Kajari E. ⚽,
65', 🟨,
69', 1 - 7, Smirnov R. ⚽,

Preview

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Kalev U21 could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Kalev U21 will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Paide U21 won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:7 (average 1.7:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Paide U21 won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide U21
Estonian Esiliiga
07.10.24	Paide U21 - Levadia Tallinn U21	5:1 ✺
28.09.24	Viimsi JK - Paide U21	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Tartu Welco - Paide U21	2:2 ✺
19.09.24	Paide U21 - Elva	3:4 ✺
15.09.24	Paide U21 - Harju JK Laagri	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WLTLL
- Tallinna Kalev U21
Estonian Esiliiga
09.10.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - FC Tallinn	0:2 ✺
06.10.24	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	6:1 ✺
28.09.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tabasalu	4:2 ✺
23.09.24	Harju JK Laagri - Tallinna Kalev U21	3:3 ✺
14.09.24	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev U21	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
11.08.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Paide U21	3:0
07.07.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Paide U21	3:5
09.03.24	Paide U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	0:1

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