Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 23

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Sportland Arena (Tallinn)


	Flora U21		Tallinna Kalev U21

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.6	3
	1.52	4.65	4.05
	1.54	5.07	3.81
	1.62	5.46	3.75	Watch
	1.5	4.39	3.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.56)	4.83 ↓ (4.98)	3.7 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flora U21
57%

Draw
18.7%

Tallinna Kalev U21
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

18.1%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

15.9%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flora U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Tallinna Kalev U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flora U21 than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Flora U21 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tallinna Kalev U21 than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21 Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Flora U21 will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Kalev U21 will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Flora U21 will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kivila K. (G) 15. Andreas D. 21. Kaares A. 2. Kalmokov N. 78. Kukk M. 22. Lepik M. 69. Luup M. 90. Oja J. 95. Piil R. (C) 76. Sammul R. 18. Valdmets R.	1. Vetkal M. (G) 10. De Pizzol O. 3. Ernits R. 9. Ilves R. 6. Kajari E. 2. Kirt A. 77. Kollo A. 8. Laasner K. (C) 14. Sal-Al-Saller D. 7. Talu R. 29. Tomberg M.
Substitutes
57. Ilves J. 47. Isok K. 45. Lorenz K. 74. Paltser E. 42. Palts J. 66. Pihlak P. 71. Raestik A. (G) 93. Silm J. 68. Vahermagi J.	19. Esna J. 13. Kaljurand J. (G) 20. Kirss H. 27. Korasteljov K. 26. Kukk C. 11. Leis L. 15. Mellis V. 23. Tammepold H. 16. Uukkivi K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Sammul R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 🟨,
66', 🟨,
67', 1 - 0, Silm J. ⚽,
74', 🟨,
84', 1 - 1, Laasner K. ⚽, Ilves R. (A),
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flora U21 won 1.

Recent performances by Flora U21 have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kalev U21 is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Flora U21 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Flora U21 is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Flora U21 won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 31:11. (average 2.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Flora U21 won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 21:7. (average 3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flora U21
Estonian Esiliiga
02.08.25	FC Tallinn - Flora U21	2:3 ✺
26.07.25	Flora U21 - Nõmme Kalju U21	1:2 ✺
21.07.25	Nõmme United - Flora U21	4:0 ✺
17.07.25	Nõmme United - Flora U21	4:1 ✺
12.07.25	Flora U21 - Elva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLLLW
- Tallinna Kalev U21
Estonian Esiliiga
01.08.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tammeka U21	5:0 ✺
28.07.25	Viimsi JK - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:0 ✺
18.07.25	Levadia Tallinn U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	3:3 ✺
12.07.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Nõmme United	0:3 ✺
05.07.25	Elva - Tallinna Kalev U21	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
19.06.25	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	2:2
16.03.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Flora U21	2:2
06.10.24	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	6:1
31.08.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Flora U21	1:1
23.07.24	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:3
08.04.24	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Flora U21	1:3
18.10.19	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev U21	2:0

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