Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 9 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Benitez C. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Disney+, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, DSports 1, Inter
World	Disney+


	Palestino		Unión Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.4	2.25	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.8
	3.25	3.25	2.2	Watch
	3.34	3.32	2.22
	2.5	3	2.8	Watch
	3.23	3.38	2.24	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.3)	3.26 ↑ (3.14)	2.39 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 4

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Current Win Probability

Palestino
31.1%

Draw
29.1%

Unión Santa Fe
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

29.8%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

28.7%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palestino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Palestino's form might have worsened.

Unión Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Santa Fe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palestino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Santa Fe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Palestino - Unión Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Palestino will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Unión will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Unión: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palestino (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Unión (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Unión (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Palestino (votes: 2 - 50%). Unión (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 42. Meza F. 23. Leon J. 10. Martinez Arce A. E. 5. Fernandez J. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 14. Abrigo J. 20. Tapia Paez G. 27. Marabel J.	25. Cardozo T. (G) 22. Gerometta F. 32. Paz N. 34. Pardo F. 3. Corvalan C. 11. Del Blanco M. 8. Ham E. 24. Profini R. 7. Fragapane F. 9. Domina J. 31. Estigarribia M.
Substitutes
21. Araneda B. 19. Araya M. 18. Arias J. 26. Contreras D. (G) 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 6. Meza N. 8. Parra P. 24. Salgado D. 22. Soto B. 13. Suarez C. 28. Zuniga D.	19. Angulo J. 29. Diaz D. 13. Fascendini V. 18. Gamba L. 26. Luduena J. 16. Martinez M. 20. Palacios J. 14. Pitton B. 28. Pitton M. 1. Tagliamonte M. (G) 35. Vargas L. 10. Verde L.
Coaches
Bovaglio L.	Gonzalez K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Gerometta F. 🟨,
10', Ham E. 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Carrasco B. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Paz N. ↓, Gamba L. ↑,
46', Fragapane F. ↓, Verde L. ↑,
46', Gerometta F. ↓, Vargas L. ↑,
52', Meza F. 🟨,
68', Ham E. 🟨,
68', Carrasco B. 🟨,
70', Domina J. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
71', Profini R. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
73', Tapia Paez G. ↓, Parra P. ↑,
78', Martinez Arce A. E. ↓, Meza N. ↑,
86', Abrigo J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
86', Carrasco B. ↓, Salgado D. ↑,
90+6', Martinez M. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 0, Marabel J. ⚽,

Preview

Palestino is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Unión is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Palestino could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Palestino have a series of guest games.

Recently Unión have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Unión Española - Palestino	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Palestino	3:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
27.03.25	Colo-Colo - Palestino	1:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
23.03.25	Deportes Concepción - Palestino	3:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
16.03.25	Palestino - Ñublense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLTLW
- Unión Santa Fe
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Central Córdoba	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.03.25	Aldosivi - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
20.03.25	Unión Santa Fe - Racing	0:1 ✺
17.03.25	Unión Santa Fe - Banfield	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLLW

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