Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 3 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Herrera Y. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Colombia	ESPN 5
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Mushuc Runa		Palestino

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	5.25	Watch
	1.65	3.75	5
	1.66	3.75	5	Watch
	1.67	3.82	5.25	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5	Watch
	1.69	3.8	5.05	Watch
	1.66	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.73)	3.75 ↑ (3.59)	5.08 ↑ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
56.5%

Draw
25%

Palestino
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

26.1%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.4%

27.6%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Palestino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	8.3%	0%

Mushuc Runa - Palestino Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mushuc Runa will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (G) 32. Orejuela C. 4. Haquin L. 29. Quintero D. 2. Bentaberry B. 5. Davila E. 19. Gracia A. 14. Tapiero S. 17. Penilla C. 27. Simisterra R. 41. Caicedo E.	25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 42. Meza F. 23. Leon J. 10. Martinez Arce A. E. 13. Suarez C. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 14. Abrigo J. 11. Benitez J. 27. Marabel J.
Substitutes
22. Alonso M. 88. Arce L. 18. Bryan Angulo 21. Cristobal R. 10. Delgado B. 31. Mina G. 11. Miranda B. 3. Parrales J. 26. Peralta K. 9. Rigoleto M. 1. Tapia C. (G) 8. Zambrano A.	19. Araya M. 18. Arias J. 43. Cienfuegos M. 26. Contreras D. (G) 30. Jimenez M. 17. Martin M. 6. Meza N. 8. Parra P. 1. Salas S. (G) 22. Soto B. 20. Tapia Paez G.
Coaches
Almeida E.	Bovaglio L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Orejuela C. 🟨,
39', Meza F. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Haquin L. ⚽, Simisterra R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Caicedo E. ↓, Bryan Angulo ↑,
60', Davila E. 🟨,
63', Martinez Arce A. E. ↓, Parra P. ↑,
63', Benitez J. ↓, Tapia Paez G. ↑,
67', Orejuela C. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Marabel J. ⚽, Carrasco B. (A),
73', Quintero D. 🟨,
74', Haquin L. ↓, Alonso M. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Simisterra R. ⚽, Tapiero S. (A),
80', Abrigo J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Alonso M. ⚽, Bryan Angulo (A),
85', Gracia A. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
86', Simisterra R. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
90+1', Ceza Gavilan A. A. 🟨,
90+3', 3 - 2, Carrasco B. ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Mushuc Runa is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Palestino is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Palestino could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Mushuc Runa have a series of home games.

Recently Palestino have a series of guest games.

In this match Mushuc Runa is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
29.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	1:1 ✺
14.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Vinotinto	1:2 ✺
09.03.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLTWW
- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Primera Division
27.03.25	Colo-Colo - Palestino	1:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
23.03.25	Deportes Concepción - Palestino	3:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
16.03.25	Palestino - Ñublense	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Palestino	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	Universidad Católica - Palestino	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 TLWWW

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