Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio 15 de Abril (Santa Fe)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South
Uruguay	DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DSports 1
World	Disney+


	Unión Santa Fe		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.9	3.5	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.6
	2.35	2.95	3.3	Watch
	2.44	2.95	3.32
	2.9	2.8	2.5	Watch
	2.39	2.94	3.41	Watch
	2.35	2.95	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (3.25)	2.91 ↓ (3)	3.13 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 3

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Current Win Probability

Unión Santa Fe
37.5%

Draw
32.4%

Cruzeiro
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

31.1%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

29.4%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión Santa Fe's performance.

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruzeiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unión Santa Fe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruzeiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	54.5%	0%

Unión Santa Fe - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Unión will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Cardozo T. (G) 22. Gerometta F. 32. Paz N. 34. Pardo F. 3. Corvalan C. 11. Del Blanco M. 8. Ham E. 24. Profini R. 7. Fragapane F. 31. Estigarribia M. 9. Domina J.	1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 14. Gamarra M. 25. Villalba L. 94. Wanderson 5. Walace 88. Christian 29. Romero L. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 26. Diaz L.
Substitutes
19. Angulo J. 29. Diaz D. 13. Fascendini V. 18. Gamba L. 26. Luduena J. 16. Martinez M. 20. Palacios J. 14. Pitton B. 28. Pitton M. 1. Tagliamonte M. (G) 35. Vargas L. 10. Verde L.	11. Bolasie Y. 7. Dudu 21. Eduardo 23. Fagner 32. Jose 6. Kaiki 19. Kaio Jorge 41. Leo Aragao (G) 16. Lucas Silva 3. Marlon 17. Marquinhos 8. Matheus Henrique
Coaches
Gonzalez K.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Domina J. 🟨,
40', Christian 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Eduardo ↑,
65', Wanderson ↓, Dudu ↑,
65', Diaz L. ↓, Kaio Jorge ↑,
68', Paz N. 🟨,
71', Gerometta F. ↓, Vargas L. ↑,
71', Fragapane F. ↓, Verde L. ↑,
74', Domina J. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
76', Christian ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
81', Ham E. ↓, Pitton M. ↑,
81', Paz N. ↓, Gamba L. ↑,
88', Romero L. ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
90+5', 1 - 0, Diaz D. ⚽, Pardo F. (A),

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Unión could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Santa Fe
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.03.25	Aldosivi - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
20.03.25	Unión Santa Fe - Racing	0:1 ✺
17.03.25	Unión Santa Fe - Banfield	3:1 ✺
10.03.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Unión Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
05.03.25	Unión Santa Fe - Colegiales	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWLW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	Cruzeiro - Mirassol	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
22.02.25	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 penalties ✺
16.02.25	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
12.02.25	Democrata GV - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WTLTL

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